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Al Shomooa SC vs Ittihad Gharyan SC — Premier League 2019

Al Shomooa SC
Al Shomooa SC
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ittihad Gharyan SC
Ittihad Gharyan SC
1/29/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Group B - 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Al Shomooa SC55%
×Draw28%
Ittihad Gharyan SC17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Shomooa SC
1.38
Ittihad Gharyan SC
0.63

Al Shomooa SC creates 119% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 8 away

creates per match

Al Shomooa SC
1.38
Ittihad Gharyan SC
0.38

allows per match

Al Shomooa SC
0.88
Ittihad Gharyan SC
1.38

finishing

Al Shomooa SC+0.00on par
Ittihad Gharyan SC+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Shomooa SC ↓

Ittihad Gharyan SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Al Shomooa SC or draw
83%
Al Shomooa SC or Ittihad Gharyan SC
72%
Draw or Ittihad Gharyan SC
45%

Winning margin

Al Shomooa SC wins by 2+
27%
Ittihad Gharyan SC wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Al Shomooa SC 1+ goals
75%
Al Shomooa SC 2+ goals
40%
Al Shomooa SC 3+ goals
16%
Ittihad Gharyan SC 1+ goals
47%
Ittihad Gharyan SC 2+ goals
13%
Ittihad Gharyan SC 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Al Shomooa SC (draw refunded)
76%
Ittihad Gharyan SC (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Shomooa SC at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.88 · 8 matches

Ittihad Gharyan SC away — creates 0.38, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Shomooa SC attack 1.38 + Ittihad Gharyan SC defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.38

Ittihad Gharyan SC attack 0.38 + Al Shomooa SC defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Al Shomooa SC scores more
55%
level
28%
Ittihad Gharyan SC scores more
17%

Al Shomooa SC at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Al Shomooa SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Shomooa SC vs Ittihad Gharyan SC

Al Shomooa SC beat Ittihad Gharyan SC 1-0 in Premier League on January 29, 2026.