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Itapirense U20 vs Aguai U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Itapirense U20
Itapirense U20
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Aguai U20
Aguai U20
Lucas Norio 73'
7/4/2025Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 10Estádio Municipal Coronel Francisco Vieira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Itapirense U2046%
×Draw24%
Aguai U2031%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Itapirense U20
1.72
Aguai U20
1.37

Itapirense U20 creates 26% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 20 away

creates per match

Itapirense U20
1.44
Aguai U20
1.05

allows per match

Itapirense U20
1.69
Aguai U20
2.00

finishing

Itapirense U20+0.00on par
Aguai U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 60Under: 4060%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 61No: 3961%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Itapirense U20 ↓

Aguai U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Itapirense U20 or draw
69%
Itapirense U20 or Aguai U20
76%
Draw or Aguai U20
54%

Winning margin

Itapirense U20 wins by 2+
24%
Aguai U20 wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Itapirense U20 1+ goals
82%
Itapirense U20 2+ goals
51%
Itapirense U20 3+ goals
25%
Aguai U20 1+ goals
75%
Aguai U20 2+ goals
40%
Aguai U20 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Itapirense U20 (draw refunded)
60%
Aguai U20 (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Itapirense U20 at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.69 · 16 matches

Aguai U20 away — creates 1.05, concedes 2.00 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Itapirense U20 attack 1.44 + Aguai U20 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.72

Aguai U20 attack 1.05 + Itapirense U20 defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Itapirense U20 scores more
46%
level
24%
Aguai U20 scores more
31%

Itapirense U20 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Itapirense U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

73'
Lucas Norio

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista - U20: Itapirense U20 1–0 Aguai U20

Itapirense U20 beat Aguai U20 1-0 in Paulista - U20 on July 4, 2025.

Goals: Lucas Norio (73').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Coronel Francisco Vieira in Itapira, São Paulo.