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Aguai U20 vs Itapirense U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Aguai U20
Aguai U20
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Itapirense U20
Itapirense U20
Unknown 70', 25', 21', 3'
4/19/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 2Estádio Municipal Dr. Leonardo Guaranha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Aguai U2050%
×Draw24%
Itapirense U2025%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aguai U20
1.68
Itapirense U20
1.12

Aguai U20 creates 50% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 17 away

creates per match

Aguai U20
0.89
Itapirense U20
1.12

allows per match

Aguai U20
1.11
Itapirense U20
2.47

finishing

Aguai U20+0.00on par
Itapirense U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 53Under: 4753%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 55No: 4555%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aguai U20 ↓

Itapirense U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Aguai U20 or draw
75%
Aguai U20 or Itapirense U20
76%
Draw or Itapirense U20
50%

Winning margin

Aguai U20 wins by 2+
27%
Itapirense U20 wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Aguai U20 1+ goals
81%
Aguai U20 2+ goals
50%
Aguai U20 3+ goals
24%
Itapirense U20 1+ goals
67%
Itapirense U20 2+ goals
31%
Itapirense U20 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Aguai U20 (draw refunded)
66%
Itapirense U20 (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aguai U20 at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.11 · 18 matches

Itapirense U20 away — creates 1.12, concedes 2.47 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aguai U20 attack 0.89 + Itapirense U20 defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 1.68

Itapirense U20 attack 1.12 + Aguai U20 defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Aguai U20 scores more
50%
level
24%
Itapirense U20 scores more
25%

Aguai U20 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Aguai U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'
21'
25'
70'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista - U20: Aguai U20 4–0 Itapirense U20

Aguai U20 beat Itapirense U20 4-0 in Paulista - U20 on April 19, 2024.

Goals: ? (3', 21', 25', 70').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Dr. Leonardo Guaranha in Aguaí, São Paulo.