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Italy vs Greece — Euro Championship 2024

Italy
Italy
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Greece
Greece
F. Bernardeschi 78'
Jorginho 63' (pen)
10/12/2019Euro ChampionshipEuro Championship · Qualifying Round - 7Stadio Olimpico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Italy72%
×Draw18%
Greece10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Italy
2.19
Greece
0.69

Italy creates 217% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 5 away

creates per match

Italy
3.38
Greece
1.00

allows per match

Italy
0.38
Greece
1.00

finishing

Italy+0.00on par
Greece+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Italy ↓

Greece →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Italy or draw
90%
Italy or Greece
82%
Draw or Greece
28%

Winning margin

Italy wins by 2+
47%
Greece wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Italy 1+ goals
89%
Italy 2+ goals
64%
Italy 3+ goals
37%
Greece 1+ goals
50%
Greece 2+ goals
15%
Greece 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Italy (draw refunded)
87%
Greece (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Italy at home — creates 3.38, concedes 0.38 · 8 matches

Greece away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Italy attack 3.38 + Greece defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 2.19

Greece attack 1.00 + Italy defence 0.38 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Italy scores more
72%
level
18%
Greece scores more
10%

Italy at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Italy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20
F. BernardeschiItalyItaly · M
8.0

Match Events

14'
Pantelis Hatzidiakos
27'
Efthymios Koulouris
39'
F. Bernardeschi← F. Chiesa
62'
Andreas Bouchalakis
63'
JorginhoPenalty
67'
A. Donis← E. Koulouris
75'
D. Giannoulis← A. Bouchalakis
78'
F. Bernardeschi↳ L. Bonucci
79'
A. Belotti← C. Immobile
79'
P. Mandalos← A. Bakasetas
87'
N. Zaniolo← N. Barella

Possession

71%Italy

Shots

20Italy

Pass accuracy

54%Italy

Statistics

ItalyGreece
Overview
71%Possession29%
20Total Shots8
8Corners4
9Fouls11
Shots
20Total Shots8
4On Target1
8Off Target4
8Blocked3
8Inside Box6
12Outside Box2
Passing
71%Possession29%
676Total Passes274
598Accurate Passes203
88%Pass Accuracy74%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
Discipline
9Fouls11
0Yellow Cards3
3Offsides1

Italy 2 – 0 Greece

Italy beat Greece 2-0 in Euro Championship on October 12, 2019.

Goals: Jorginho (63' pen), F. Bernardeschi (78').

Italy controlled possession (71%) and registered 20 shots to 8.

The match was played at Stadio Olimpico in Roma.