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Greece vs Italy — Euro Championship 2024

Greece
Greece
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
Italy
Italy
L. Bonucci 33'
L. Insigne 30'
N. Barella 23'
6/8/2019Euro ChampionshipEuro Championship · Qualifying Round - 3Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Greece16%
×Draw21%
Italy63%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Greece
0.91
Italy
2.00

Italy creates 120% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 11 away

creates per match

Greece
1.17
Italy
2.18

allows per match

Greece
1.83
Italy
0.64

finishing

Greece+0.00on par
Italy+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Greece ↓

Italy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–111%
0–211%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Greece or draw
37%
Greece or Italy
79%
Draw or Italy
84%

Winning margin

Greece wins by 2+
5%
Italy wins by 2+
38%

Team goals

Greece 1+ goals
60%
Greece 2+ goals
23%
Greece 3+ goals
6%
Italy 1+ goals
86%
Italy 2+ goals
59%
Italy 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Greece (draw refunded)
21%
Italy (draw refunded)
79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Greece at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

Italy away — creates 2.18, concedes 0.64 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Greece attack 1.17 + Italy defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.91

Italy attack 2.18 + Greece defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Greece scores more
16%
level
21%
Italy scores more
63%

Italy at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Italy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6
M. VerrattiItalyItaly · M
8.4

Match Events

18'
Andreas Samaris
23'
N. Barella↳ A. Belotti
30'
L. Insigne↳ F. Chiesa
33'
L. Bonucci↳ Emerson
43'
Marco Verratti
45'
Giorgos Masouras
46'
E. Siopis← D. Kourmpelis
46'
C. Mavrias← D. Kolovos
68'
M. De Sciglio← Emerson
77'
A. Bakasetas← A. Samaris
81'
L. Pellegrini← M. Verratti
84'
F. Bernardeschi← A. Belotti

Possession

30%Greece

Shots

5Greece

Pass accuracy

46%Greece

Statistics

GreeceItaly
Overview
30%Possession70%
5Total Shots16
1Corners6
14Fouls9
Shots
5Total Shots16
2On Target10
3Off Target4
0Blocked2
2Inside Box11
3Outside Box5
Passing
30%Possession70%
328Total Passes761
251Accurate Passes686
77%Pass Accuracy90%
Goalkeeping
7Saves2
Discipline
14Fouls9
2Yellow Cards1
1Offsides1

Euro Championship: Greece 0–3 Italy

Italy beat Greece 3-0 in Euro Championship on June 8, 2019.

Goals: N. Barella (23'), L. Insigne (30'), L. Bonucci (33').

Italy controlled possession (70%) and registered 16 shots to 5.

The match was played at Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis in Athens.