Italy 1–1 Bosnia & Herzegovina: Result & Stats

Italy

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Bosnia & Herzegovina

Stefano Sensi 67'

Edin Džeko 57'

9/4/2020

UEFA Nations League · League A - 1Stadio Artemio Franchi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Italy59%

×Draw22%

Bosnia & Herzegovina19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ItalyExpected goals in this matchBosnia & Herzegovina

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

0.98

Italy

1.90

Bosnia & Herzegovina

0.98

Italy creates 94% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 11 away

1.43

creates per match

0.82

1.14

allows per match

2.36

creates per match

Italy

1.43

Bosnia & Herzegovina

0.82

allows per match

Italy

1.14

Bosnia & Herzegovina

2.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Italy+0.00on par

Bosnia & Herzegovina+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Italy ↓

Bosnia & Herzegovina →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Italy or draw

81%

Italy or Bosnia & Herzegovina

78%

Draw or Bosnia & Herzegovina

41%

Winning margin

Italy wins by 2+

34%

Bosnia & Herzegovina wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Italy 1+ goals

85%

Italy 2+ goals

56%

Italy 3+ goals

29%

Bosnia & Herzegovina 1+ goals

62%

Bosnia & Herzegovina 2+ goals

26%

Bosnia & Herzegovina 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Italy (draw refunded)

75%

Bosnia & Herzegovina (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Italy at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.14 · 14 matches

Bosnia & Herzegovina away — creates 0.82, concedes 2.36 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Italy attack 1.43 + Bosnia & Herzegovina defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 1.90

Bosnia & Herzegovina attack 0.82 + Italy defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Italy scores more

59%

level

22%

Bosnia & Herzegovina scores more

19%

Italy at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Italy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Lorenzo Insigne

Italy · F

8.3

Match Events

57'

Edin Džeko↳ Toni Šunjić

65'

Andrea Belotti

65'

Armin Hodžić

67'

Stefano Sensi↳ Lorenzo Insigne

71'

Nicolò Zaniolo← Federico Chiesa

73'

Ciro Immobile← Andrea Belotti

77'

Muhamed Bešić← Armin Hodžić

79'

Leonardo Bonucci

79'

Nicolò Zaniolo

79'

Gojko Cimirot

84'

Eldar Ćivić← Sead Kolašinac

86'

Moise Kean← Lorenzo Pellegrini

86'

Deni Milošević← Edin Višća

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ItalyBosnia

Overview

61%Possession39%

20Total Shots9

7Corners2

7Fouls12

Shots

20Total Shots9

4On Target4

12Off Target4

4Blocked1

10Inside Box5

10Outside Box4

Passing

61%Possession39%

614Total Passes396

525Accurate Passes304

86%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

7Fouls12

3Yellow Cards2

2Offsides0