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Italy vs Bosnia & Herzegovina — Euro Championship 2024

Italy
Italy
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Bosnia & Herzegovina
Bosnia & Herzegovina
M. Verratti 86'
L. Insigne 49'
E. Džeko 32'
6/11/2019Euro ChampionshipEuro Championship · Qualifying Round - 4Allianz Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Italy73%
×Draw16%
Bosnia & Herzegovina11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Italy
2.44
Bosnia & Herzegovina
0.81

Italy creates 201% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 4 away

creates per match

Italy
3.38
Bosnia & Herzegovina
1.25

allows per match

Italy
0.38
Bosnia & Herzegovina
1.50

finishing

Italy+0.00on par
Bosnia & Herzegovina+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Italy ↓

Bosnia & Herzegovina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Italy or draw
89%
Italy or Bosnia & Herzegovina
84%
Draw or Bosnia & Herzegovina
27%

Winning margin

Italy wins by 2+
50%
Bosnia & Herzegovina wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Italy 1+ goals
91%
Italy 2+ goals
70%
Italy 3+ goals
43%
Bosnia & Herzegovina 1+ goals
56%
Bosnia & Herzegovina 2+ goals
19%
Bosnia & Herzegovina 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Italy (draw refunded)
87%
Bosnia & Herzegovina (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Italy at home — creates 3.38, concedes 0.38 · 8 matches

Bosnia & Herzegovina away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Italy attack 3.38 + Bosnia & Herzegovina defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.44

Bosnia & Herzegovina attack 1.25 + Italy defence 0.38 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Italy scores more
73%
level
16%
Bosnia & Herzegovina scores more
11%

Italy at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Italy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
E. DžekoBosnia & HerzegovinaBosnia & Herzegovina · F
8.3

Match Events

14'
Jorginho
32'
E. Džeko↳ E. Višća
43'
Muhamed Bešić
44'
Eldar Ćivić
46'
F. Chiesa← F. Quagliarella
49'
L. Insigne↳ F. Bernardeschi
62'
Elvis Saric
66'
M. De Sciglio← G. Mancini
72'
B. Nastić← E. Ćivić
81'
A. Belotti← F. Bernardeschi
81'
G. Cimirot← A. Gojak
86'
M. Verratti↳ L. Insigne
90'
Edin Džeko

Possession

65%Italy

Shots

17Italy

Pass accuracy

52%Italy

Statistics

ItalyBosnia
Overview
65%Possession35%
17Total Shots14
5Corners4
10Fouls17
Shots
17Total Shots14
8On Target3
5Off Target6
4Blocked5
5Inside Box10
12Outside Box4
Passing
65%Possession35%
604Total Passes316
537Accurate Passes258
89%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
2Saves6
Discipline
10Fouls17
1Yellow Cards4
2Offsides2

Euro Championship: Italy 2–1 Bosnia & Herzegovina

Italy beat Bosnia & Herzegovina 2-1 in Euro Championship on June 11, 2019.

Goals: E. Džeko (32'), L. Insigne (49'), M. Verratti (86').

Italy controlled possession (65%) and registered 17 shots to 14.

The match was played at Allianz Stadium in Torino.