Italy U19 2–2 Spain U19: Result & Stats

Italy U19

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Spain U19

M. Liberali 84', 29' (pen)

Antoñito Cordero 89' (pen)

Jano Monserrate 17'

3/22/2025

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Elite Round - 3Stadio Nicola Ceravolo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Italy U1946%

×Draw23%

Spain U1930%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Italy U19Expected goals in this matchSpain U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.41

Italy U19

1.79

Spain U19

1.41

Italy U19 creates 27% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 12 away

2.75

creates per match

2.17

0.65

allows per match

0.83

creates per match

Italy U19

2.75

Spain U19

2.17

allows per match

Italy U19

0.65

Spain U19

0.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Italy U19+0.00on par

Spain U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Italy U19 ↓

Spain U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Italy U19 or draw

70%

Italy U19 or Spain U19

77%

Draw or Spain U19

54%

Winning margin

Italy U19 wins by 2+

25%

Spain U19 wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Italy U19 1+ goals

83%

Italy U19 2+ goals

53%

Italy U19 3+ goals

26%

Spain U19 1+ goals

76%

Spain U19 2+ goals

41%

Spain U19 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Italy U19 (draw refunded)

60%

Spain U19 (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Italy U19 at home — creates 2.75, concedes 0.65 · 20 matches

Spain U19 away — creates 2.17, concedes 0.83 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Italy U19 attack 2.75 + Spain U19 defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.79

Spain U19 attack 2.17 + Italy U19 defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Italy U19 scores more

46%

level

23%

Spain U19 scores more

30%

Italy U19 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Italy U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

Jano Monserrate

28'

I. Merino

29'

M. LiberaliPenalty

46'

Quim Junyent← Izan Merino

58'

G. De Pieri← N. Fortini

67'

F. Pagnucco← A. Natali

73'

M. Liberali

76'

Alejandro Granados← Jano Monserrate

76'

Dani Díaz← Daniel Muñoz

76'

Jesús Fortea← Héctor Fort

81'

L. Venturino← F. Rispoli

81'

R. Agbonifo← S. Fini

84'

M. Liberali

86'

V. Magni

89'

Antoñito CorderoPenalty

90+3'

J. Fortea

90+5'

P. Gallardo

90+1'

Valde← Antoñito Cordero

Italy

Spain

1

Jiménez

2

▼

Fort

3

▼

4

5

15

14

▼

Merino

8

⚽

▼

Monserrat

10

⚽

▼

9

17

1

3

4

2

6

▼

Natali

13

▼

Fortini

15

Sala

8

▼

Rispoli

7

▼

Fini

10

⚽2

Liberali

18

Ekhator

Manager: A. Bollini

58'▲G. De Pieri←▼N. Fortini

67'▲F. Pagnucco←▼A. Natali

81'▲L. Venturino←▼F. Rispoli

81'▲R. Agbonifo←▼S. Fini

Italy U19 substitutes

14Pieri16Pagnucco17Venturino11Agbonifo12Nunziante20Coletta19Mendicino5Plaia

Manager: Paco Gallardo

46'▲Quim Junyent←▼Izan Merino

76'▲Alejandro Granados←▼Jano Monserrate

76'▲Dani Díaz←▼Daniel Muñoz

76'▲Jesús Fortea←▼Héctor Fort

90+1'▲Valde←▼Antoñito Cordero

Spain U19 substitutes

6Junyent18Granados7Díaz12Fortea20Valde16Pastor13González11Huestamendia

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Italy U19 2–2 Spain U19

Italy U19 and Spain U19 drew 2-2 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on March 22, 2025.

Goals: Jano Monserrate (17'), M. Liberali (29' pen, 84'), Antoñito Cordero (89' pen).

The match was played at Stadio Nicola Ceravolo in Catanzaro.

Italy U19 vs Spain U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Italy U19 2–2 Spain U19