Italy U19 0–1 Spain U19: Result & Stats

Italy U19

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Spain U19

Pol Fortuny 100'

7/25/2024

UEFA U19 Championship · Semi-finalsWindsor Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Italy U1926%

×Draw23%

Spain U1951%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Italy U19Expected goals in this matchSpain U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.82

Italy U19

1.23

Spain U19

1.82

Spain U19 creates 48% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 15 away

2.00

creates per match

2.87

0.77

allows per match

0.47

creates per match

Italy U19

2.00

Spain U19

2.87

allows per match

Italy U19

0.77

Spain U19

0.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Italy U19+0.00on par

Spain U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Italy U19 ↓

Spain U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Italy U19 or draw

49%

Italy U19 or Spain U19

77%

Draw or Spain U19

74%

Winning margin

Italy U19 wins by 2+

11%

Spain U19 wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Italy U19 1+ goals

71%

Italy U19 2+ goals

35%

Italy U19 3+ goals

13%

Spain U19 1+ goals

84%

Spain U19 2+ goals

54%

Spain U19 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Italy U19 (draw refunded)

34%

Spain U19 (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Italy U19 at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.77 · 13 matches

Spain U19 away — creates 2.87, concedes 0.47 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Italy U19 attack 2.00 + Spain U19 defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 1.23

Spain U19 attack 2.87 + Italy U19 defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Italy U19 scores more

26%

level

23%

Spain U19 scores more

51%

Spain U19 at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Spain U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

F. Mané

Italy U19 · D

7.9

Match Events

10'

Francesco Camarda

55'

David Mella← Gerard Hernández

56'

Pol Fortuny← Assane Diao

69'

Luca Lipani

72'

J. Harder← L. Lipani

72'

V. Magni← A. Ciammaglichella

82'

Pol Fortuny

85'

T. Ebone← F. Camarda

85'

Jesús Rodríguez← Dani Rodríguez

90+1'

Mattia Mannini

100'

Pol Fortuny↳ Julio Díaz

102'

Yanis Senhadji← Rayane Belaid

105'

M. Romano← M. Mannini

105'

L. Anghelè← L. Di Maggio

114'

Marco Romano

114'

Iker Bravo

114'

D. Sia← D. Bartesaghi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ItalySpain

Overview

53%Possession47%

15Total Shots13

1Corners7

14Fouls10

Shots

15Total Shots13

2On Target5

12Off Target6

1Blocked2

8Inside Box10

7Outside Box3

Passing

53%Possession47%

645Total Passes573

580Accurate Passes496

90%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

14Fouls10

4Yellow Cards2

0Offsides1