Italy U19 3–0 Iceland U19: Result & Stats

Italy U19

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Iceland U19

G. Fabbian 67'

T. Mancini 49'

W. Gnonto 4'

10/9/2021

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 2ŠRC Bakovci

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Italy U1961%

×Draw21%

Iceland U1919%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Italy U19Expected goals in this matchIceland U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

1.06

Italy U19

2.08

Iceland U19

1.06

Italy U19 creates 96% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 15 away

2.75

creates per match

1.47

0.65

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Italy U19

2.75

Iceland U19

1.47

allows per match

Italy U19

0.65

Iceland U19

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Italy U19+0.00on par

Iceland U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Italy U19 ↓

Iceland U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Italy U19 or draw

81%

Italy U19 or Iceland U19

79%

Draw or Iceland U19

39%

Winning margin

Italy U19 wins by 2+

37%

Iceland U19 wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Italy U19 1+ goals

87%

Italy U19 2+ goals

61%

Italy U19 3+ goals

34%

Iceland U19 1+ goals

65%

Iceland U19 2+ goals

29%

Iceland U19 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Italy U19 (draw refunded)

76%

Iceland U19 (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Italy U19 at home — creates 2.75, concedes 0.65 · 20 matches

Iceland U19 away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Italy U19 attack 2.75 + Iceland U19 defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 2.08

Iceland U19 attack 1.47 + Italy U19 defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Italy U19 scores more

61%

level

21%

Iceland U19 scores more

19%

Italy U19 at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Italy U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

W. Gnonto

49'

T. Mancini

62'

A. Hoti← K. Jónsson

65'

H. N'Gbesso← T. Mancini

65'

G. Faticanti← T. Baldanzi

67'

G. Fabbian

70'

H. Mikaelsson← O. Óskarsson

70'

K. Halldórsson← H. Haraldsson

77'

A. Sigurpálsson← K. Hlynsson

77'

Í. Sigurgeirsson← Ó. Ómarsson

78'

F. Zuccon← F. Miretti

78'

J. Fazzini← W. Gnonto

85'

A. Fontanarosa← T. Sandon

Italy

Iceland

1

Arinbjör

11

▼

Haraldsso

2

Pálsson

6

▼

Jónsson

4

Róbertsso

5

Alexander

8

▼

Hlynsson

7

▼

Ómarsson

10

Djuric

9

▼

3

1

2

6

13

▼

Sandon

15

Coppola

10

▼

Miretti

11

▼

Baldanzi

7

Casadei

14

⚽

Fabbian

9

⚽

▼

Gnonto

18

⚽

▼

Mancini

Manager: C. Nunziata

65'▲H. N'Gbesso←▼T. Mancini

65'▲G. Faticanti←▼T. Baldanzi

78'▲F. Zuccon←▼F. Miretti

78'▲J. Fazzini←▼W. Gnonto

85'▲A. Fontanarosa←▼T. Sandon

Italy U19 substitutes

8N'Gbesso16Faticanti4Zuccon21Fazzini3Fontanarosa5Degl'Innocenti12Zacchi17Ghilardi19Egharevba

Manager: Ó. Skúlason

62'▲A. Hoti←▼K. Jónsson

70'▲H. Mikaelsson←▼O. Óskarsson

70'▲K. Halldórsson←▼H. Haraldsson

77'▲A. Sigurpálsson←▼K. Hlynsson

77'▲Í. Sigurgeirsson←▼Ó. Ómarsson

Iceland U19 substitutes

13Hoti18Mikaelsson16Halldórsson19Sigurpálsson20Sigurgeirsson14Hafþórsson17Tyrfingsson15Karlsson12Ásgeirsson