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Italy U19 vs Iceland U19 — UEFA U19 Championship 2019

Italy U19
Italy U19
CANC
13:00
Iceland U19
Iceland U19
9/5/2020UEFA U19 ChampionshipUEFA U19 Championship · Elite Round - 4Stadio Comunale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Italy U1948%
×Draw22%
Iceland U1929%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Italy U19
1.90
Iceland U19
1.44

Italy U19 creates 32% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 3 away

creates per match

Italy U19
2.13
Iceland U19
2.00

allows per match

Italy U19
0.88
Iceland U19
1.67

finishing

Italy U19+0.00on par
Iceland U19+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Italy U19 ↓

Iceland U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Italy U19 or draw
71%
Italy U19 or Iceland U19
78%
Draw or Iceland U19
52%

Winning margin

Italy U19 wins by 2+
27%
Iceland U19 wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Italy U19 1+ goals
85%
Italy U19 2+ goals
56%
Italy U19 3+ goals
29%
Iceland U19 1+ goals
76%
Iceland U19 2+ goals
42%
Iceland U19 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Italy U19 (draw refunded)
62%
Iceland U19 (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Italy U19 at home — creates 2.13, concedes 0.88 · 16 matches

Iceland U19 away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Italy U19 attack 2.13 + Iceland U19 defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.90

Iceland U19 attack 2.00 + Italy U19 defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Italy U19 scores more
48%
level
22%
Iceland U19 scores more
29%

Italy U19 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Italy U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Italy U19 host Iceland U19

September 5, 2020: Italy U19 take on Iceland U19 in UEFA U19 Championship. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Italy U19 host Iceland U19 at Stadio Comunale.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.