Italy U19 2–2 Germany U19: Result & Stats

Italy U19

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Germany U19

W. Gnonto 83'

M. Nasti 78'

T. Rhein 88'

I. Matanović 29'

3/23/2022

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Elite Round - 1Myyrmäen jalkapallostadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Italy U1949%

×Draw22%

Germany U1929%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Italy U19Expected goals in this matchGermany U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

1.46

Italy U19

1.96

Germany U19

1.46

Italy U19 creates 34% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 11 away

2.75

creates per match

2.27

0.65

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Italy U19

2.75

Germany U19

2.27

allows per match

Italy U19

0.65

Germany U19

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Italy U19+0.00on par

Germany U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Italy U19 ↓

Germany U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Italy U19 or draw

71%

Italy U19 or Germany U19

78%

Draw or Germany U19

51%

Winning margin

Italy U19 wins by 2+

28%

Germany U19 wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Italy U19 1+ goals

86%

Italy U19 2+ goals

58%

Italy U19 3+ goals

31%

Germany U19 1+ goals

77%

Germany U19 2+ goals

43%

Germany U19 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Italy U19 (draw refunded)

63%

Germany U19 (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Italy U19 at home — creates 2.75, concedes 0.65 · 20 matches

Germany U19 away — creates 2.27, concedes 1.18 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Italy U19 attack 2.75 + Germany U19 defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.96

Germany U19 attack 2.27 + Italy U19 defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Italy U19 scores more

49%

level

22%

Germany U19 scores more

29%

Italy U19 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Italy U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'

29'

48'

52'

57'

60'

71'

M. Nasti← G. Ambrosino

71'

M. Zanotti← R. Turicchia

78'

T. Baldanzi← S. Giovane

78'

M. Nasti

81'

B. Bobzien← A. Sieb

81'

M. Hoppe← A. Kade

82'

D. Ghilardi← W. Gnonto

83'

W. Gnonto

87'

E. Gedikli← N. Jessen

88'

88'

90'

90+3'

Italy

Germany

1

13

2

15

17

⚽

Rhein

6

Castrop

7

▼

Jessen

20

▼

Sieb

19

⚽

Matanović

8

▼

Kade

9

▼

1

17

6

3

▼

Turicchia

4

Coppola

5

▼

10

14

16

7

⚽

▼

Gnonto

9

▼

Ambrosino

Manager: C. Nunziata

71'▲M. Nasti←▼G. Ambrosino

71'▲M. Zanotti←▼R. Turicchia

78'▲T. Baldanzi←▼S. Giovane

82'▲D. Ghilardi←▼W. Gnonto

Italy U19 substitutes

20Nasti2Zanotti11Baldanzi23Ghilardi15Fontanarosa13Terracciano12Zacchi21Fazzini

Manager: H. Wolf

60'▲R. Wagner←▼Y. Amyn

81'▲B. Bobzien←▼A. Sieb

81'▲M. Hoppe←▼A. Kade

87'▲E. Gedikli←▼N. Jessen

Germany U19 substitutes

18Wagner10Bobzien5Hoppe11Gedikli4Brückner14Riedel3Lelle16Semić12Ernst