Germany U19 2–3 Italy U19: Result & Stats

Germany U19

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Italy U19

Y. Kabadayı 59'

M. Damar 53'

N. Pisilli 67', 18'

L. D'Andrea 24'

3/22/2023

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Elite Round - 2Weserstadion Platz 11

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Germany U1941%

×Draw24%

Italy U1934%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Germany U19Expected goals in this matchItaly U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.44

Germany U19

1.60

Italy U19

1.44

Germany U19 creates 11% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 13 away

2.52

creates per match

1.77

1.10

allows per match

0.69

creates per match

Germany U19

2.52

Italy U19

1.77

allows per match

Germany U19

1.10

Italy U19

0.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Germany U19+0.00on par

Italy U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Germany U19 ↓

Italy U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Germany U19 or draw

66%

Germany U19 or Italy U19

76%

Draw or Italy U19

59%

Winning margin

Germany U19 wins by 2+

21%

Italy U19 wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Germany U19 1+ goals

80%

Germany U19 2+ goals

47%

Germany U19 3+ goals

22%

Italy U19 1+ goals

76%

Italy U19 2+ goals

42%

Italy U19 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Germany U19 (draw refunded)

55%

Italy U19 (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Germany U19 at home — creates 2.52, concedes 1.10 · 21 matches

Italy U19 away — creates 1.77, concedes 0.69 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Germany U19 attack 2.52 + Italy U19 defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 1.60

Italy U19 attack 1.77 + Germany U19 defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Germany U19 scores more

41%

level

24%

Italy U19 scores more

34%

Germany U19 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Germany U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

21'

24'

43'

46'

Y. Kabadayı← M. Frauendorf

53'

55'

55'

59'

63'

S. Vignato← L. DAndrea

67'

N. Pisilli

69'

J. Diehl← T. Rothe

69'

N. Kisilowski← L. Morgalla

75'

N. Tresoldi← M. Baur

79'

A. Raimondo← F. Esposito

79'

J. Kumi← L. Lipani

84'

Y. Kabadayi

88'

T. Sanne← K. Topp

90+3'

D. Mastrantonio

90'

F. Missori← L. Hasa

Germany

Italy

1

3

14

6

13

16

7

▼

Hasa

11

⚽

▼

D'Andrea

15

▼

Lipani

19

⚽2

Pisilli

9

▼

1

5

4

16

▼

Rothe

3

Ullrich

2

▼

Morgalla

6

Tohumcu

10

⚽

Damar

11

▼

Frauendor

20

▼

Baur

9

▼

Topp

Manager: G. Streichsbier

46'▲Y. Kabadayı←▼M. Frauendorf

69'▲J. Diehl←▼T. Rothe

69'▲N. Kisilowski←▼L. Morgalla

75'▲N. Tresoldi←▼M. Baur

88'▲T. Sanne←▼K. Topp

Germany U19 substitutes

7Kabadayı18Diehl17Kisilowski13Tresoldi19Sanne8Bunk15Quarshie12Backhaus14Kemlein

Manager: A. Bollini

63'▲S. Vignato←▼L. DAndrea

79'▲A. Raimondo←▼F. Esposito

79'▲J. Kumi←▼L. Lipani

90'▲F. Missori←▼L. Hasa

Italy U19 substitutes

10Vignato18Raimondo8Kumi2Missori4Chiarodia17Amatucci20Koleosho12Palmisani

Match Recap: Germany U19 vs Italy U19

Italy U19 beat Germany U19 3-2 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on March 22, 2023.

Goals: N. Pisilli (18', 67'), L. D'Andrea (24'), M. Damar (53'), Y. Kabadayı (59').

The match was played at Weserstadion Platz 11 in Bremen.

Germany U19 vs Italy U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Germany U19 vs Italy U19