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Itabuna vs Galícia — Baiano - 2 2019

Itabuna
Itabuna
Pens
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Galícia
Galíciaadvanced
Unknown 120+11' (pen), 120+9' (pen), 120+8' (pen), 120+7' (pen), 120+6' (pen), 120+5' (pen), 120+4' (pen), 120+3' (pen)
Unknown 120+12' (pen), 120+11' (pen), 120+9' (pen), 120+8' (pen), 120+7' (pen), 120+6' (pen), 120+4' (pen), 120+3' (pen), 120+1' (pen)
7/13/2025Baiano - 2Baiano - 2 · Semi-finalsEstádio Alberto Oliveira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Itabuna53%
×Draw25%
Galícia21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Itabuna
1.58
Galícia
0.90

Itabuna creates 76% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 19 away

creates per match

Itabuna
1.64
Galícia
1.16

allows per match

Itabuna
0.64
Galícia
1.53

finishing

Itabuna+0.00on par
Galícia+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Itabuna ↓

Galícia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Itabuna or draw
79%
Itabuna or Galícia
75%
Draw or Galícia
47%

Winning margin

Itabuna wins by 2+
28%
Galícia wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Itabuna 1+ goals
79%
Itabuna 2+ goals
47%
Itabuna 3+ goals
21%
Galícia 1+ goals
59%
Galícia 2+ goals
23%
Galícia 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Itabuna (draw refunded)
71%
Galícia (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Itabuna at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.64 · 11 matches

Galícia away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.53 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Itabuna attack 1.64 + Galícia defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.58

Galícia attack 1.16 + Itabuna defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Itabuna scores more
53%
level
25%
Galícia scores more
21%

Itabuna at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Itabuna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

120+1'
Missed penalty
120+1'
Penalty
120+2'
Missed penalty
120+2'
Missed penalty
120+3'
Penalty
120+3'
Penalty
120+4'
Penalty
120+4'
Penalty
120+5'
Penalty
120+5'
Missed penalty
120+6'
Penalty
120+6'
Penalty
120+7'
Penalty
120+7'
Penalty
120+8'
Penalty
120+8'
Penalty
120+9'
Penalty
120+9'
Penalty
120+10'
Missed penalty
120+10'
Missed penalty
120+11'
Penalty
120+11'
Penalty
120+12'
Missed penalty
120+12'
Penalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Itabuna 0 – 0 Galícia

Itabuna and Galícia drew 0-0 in Baiano - 2 on July 13, 2025.

Goals: ? (120+1' pen, 120+3' pen, 120+3' pen, 120+4' pen, 120+4' pen, 120+5' pen, 120+6' pen, 120+6' pen, 120+7' pen, 120+7' pen, 120+8' pen, 120+8' pen, 120+9' pen, 120+9' pen, 120+11' pen, 120+11' pen, 120+12' pen).

The match was played at Estádio Alberto Oliveira in Feira de Santana, Bahia.