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Galícia vs Itabuna — Baiano - 2 2019

Galícia
Galícia
FT
2 – 3
Itabuna
Itabuna
5/18/2025Baiano - 2Baiano - 2 · Round 4Estádio Antônio de Figueiredo Carneiro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Galícia27%
×Draw28%
Itabuna46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Galícia
0.95
Itabuna
1.34

Itabuna creates 41% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 13 away

creates per match

Galícia
0.90
Itabuna
1.69

allows per match

Galícia
1.00
Itabuna
1.00

finishing

Galícia+0.00on par
Itabuna+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Galícia ↓

Itabuna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–114%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Galícia or draw
54%
Galícia or Itabuna
72%
Draw or Itabuna
73%

Winning margin

Galícia wins by 2+
9%
Itabuna wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Galícia 1+ goals
61%
Galícia 2+ goals
25%
Galícia 3+ goals
7%
Itabuna 1+ goals
74%
Itabuna 2+ goals
39%
Itabuna 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Galícia (draw refunded)
37%
Itabuna (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Galícia at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.00 · 20 matches

Itabuna away — creates 1.69, concedes 1.00 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Galícia attack 0.90 + Itabuna defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.95

Itabuna attack 1.69 + Galícia defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Galícia scores more
27%
level
28%
Itabuna scores more
46%

Itabuna at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Itabuna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Galícia vs Itabuna

Itabuna beat Galícia 3-2 in Baiano - 2 on May 18, 2025.

The match was played at Estádio Antônio de Figueiredo Carneiro in Alagoinhas, Bahia.