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Itabuna EC U20 vs Conquista U20 — Baiano U20 2026

Itabuna EC U20
Itabuna EC U20
FT
0 – 2
Conquista U20
Conquista U20
5/11/2024Baiano U20Baiano U20 · 1st Phase - 9Estádio José Silveira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Itabuna EC U2039%
×Draw28%
Conquista U2032%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Itabuna EC U20
1.23
Conquista U20
1.09

Itabuna EC U20 creates 13% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 21 away

creates per match

Itabuna EC U20
1.17
Conquista U20
0.86

allows per match

Itabuna EC U20
1.33
Conquista U20
1.29

finishing

Itabuna EC U20+0.00on par
Conquista U20+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Itabuna EC U20 ↓

Conquista U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Itabuna EC U20 or draw
68%
Itabuna EC U20 or Conquista U20
72%
Draw or Conquista U20
61%

Winning margin

Itabuna EC U20 wins by 2+
17%
Conquista U20 wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Itabuna EC U20 1+ goals
71%
Itabuna EC U20 2+ goals
35%
Itabuna EC U20 3+ goals
13%
Conquista U20 1+ goals
66%
Conquista U20 2+ goals
30%
Conquista U20 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Itabuna EC U20 (draw refunded)
55%
Conquista U20 (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Itabuna EC U20 at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

Conquista U20 away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.29 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Itabuna EC U20 attack 1.17 + Conquista U20 defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.23

Conquista U20 attack 0.86 + Itabuna EC U20 defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Itabuna EC U20 scores more
39%
level
28%
Conquista U20 scores more
32%

Itabuna EC U20 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Itabuna EC U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Itabuna EC U20 vs Conquista U20

Conquista U20 beat Itabuna EC U20 2-0 in Baiano U20 on May 11, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio José Silveira in São José da Vitória, Bahia.