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Conquista U20 vs Itabuna EC U20 — Baiano U20 2026

Conquista U20
Conquista U20
FT
1 – 1
Itabuna EC U20
Itabuna EC U20
3/24/2024Baiano U20Baiano U20 · 1st Phase - 2Estadio Edvaldo Flores

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Conquista U2053%
×Draw25%
Itabuna EC U2022%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Conquista U20
1.61
Itabuna EC U20
0.93

Conquista U20 creates 73% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 6 away

creates per match

Conquista U20
1.90
Itabuna EC U20
1.00

allows per match

Conquista U20
0.86
Itabuna EC U20
1.33

finishing

Conquista U20+0.00on par
Itabuna EC U20+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Conquista U20 ↓

Itabuna EC U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Conquista U20 or draw
78%
Conquista U20 or Itabuna EC U20
75%
Draw or Itabuna EC U20
47%

Winning margin

Conquista U20 wins by 2+
28%
Itabuna EC U20 wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Conquista U20 1+ goals
80%
Conquista U20 2+ goals
48%
Conquista U20 3+ goals
22%
Itabuna EC U20 1+ goals
61%
Itabuna EC U20 2+ goals
24%
Itabuna EC U20 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Conquista U20 (draw refunded)
71%
Itabuna EC U20 (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Conquista U20 at home — creates 1.90, concedes 0.86 · 21 matches

Itabuna EC U20 away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Conquista U20 attack 1.90 + Itabuna EC U20 defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.61

Itabuna EC U20 attack 1.00 + Conquista U20 defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Conquista U20 scores more
53%
level
25%
Itabuna EC U20 scores more
22%

Conquista U20 at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Conquista U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Baiano U20: Conquista U20 1–1 Itabuna EC U20

Conquista U20 and Itabuna EC U20 drew 1-1 in Baiano U20 on March 24, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Edvaldo Flores in Vitória da Conquista, Bahia.