Itabuna EC U20 2–1 Barcelona BA U20: Result & Stats

Itabuna EC U20

FT

2 – 1

Barcelona BA U20

3/30/2024

Baiano U20 · 1st Phase - 3Estádio José Silveira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Itabuna EC U2040%

×Draw27%

Barcelona BA U2033%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Itabuna EC U20Expected goals in this matchBarcelona BA U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.19

Itabuna EC U20

1.33

Barcelona BA U20

1.19

Itabuna EC U20 creates 12% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 22 away

1.17

creates per match

1.05

1.33

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Itabuna EC U20

1.17

Barcelona BA U20

1.05

allows per match

Itabuna EC U20

1.33

Barcelona BA U20

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Itabuna EC U20+0.00on par

Barcelona BA U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Itabuna EC U20 ↓

Barcelona BA U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Itabuna EC U20 or draw

67%

Itabuna EC U20 or Barcelona BA U20

73%

Draw or Barcelona BA U20

60%

Winning margin

Itabuna EC U20 wins by 2+

18%

Barcelona BA U20 wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Itabuna EC U20 1+ goals

74%

Itabuna EC U20 2+ goals

38%

Itabuna EC U20 3+ goals

15%

Barcelona BA U20 1+ goals

70%

Barcelona BA U20 2+ goals

33%

Barcelona BA U20 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Itabuna EC U20 (draw refunded)

55%

Barcelona BA U20 (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Itabuna EC U20 at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

Barcelona BA U20 away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.50 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Itabuna EC U20 attack 1.17 + Barcelona BA U20 defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.33

Barcelona BA U20 attack 1.05 + Itabuna EC U20 defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Itabuna EC U20 scores more

40%

level

27%

Barcelona BA U20 scores more

33%

Itabuna EC U20 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Itabuna EC U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff