Barcelona BA U20 1–1 Itabuna EC U20: Result & Stats

Barcelona BA U20

FT

1 – 1

Itabuna EC U20

5/4/2024

Baiano U20 · 1st Phase - 8Estádio Mário Pessoa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Barcelona BA U2047%

×Draw26%

Itabuna EC U2027%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Barcelona BA U20Expected goals in this matchItabuna EC U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.05

Barcelona BA U20

1.48

Itabuna EC U20

1.05

Barcelona BA U20 creates 41% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 6 away

1.62

creates per match

1.00

1.10

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Barcelona BA U20

1.62

Itabuna EC U20

1.00

allows per match

Barcelona BA U20

1.10

Itabuna EC U20

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Barcelona BA U20+0.00on par

Itabuna EC U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barcelona BA U20 ↓

Itabuna EC U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Barcelona BA U20 or draw

73%

Barcelona BA U20 or Itabuna EC U20

74%

Draw or Itabuna EC U20

53%

Winning margin

Barcelona BA U20 wins by 2+

23%

Itabuna EC U20 wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Barcelona BA U20 1+ goals

77%

Barcelona BA U20 2+ goals

43%

Barcelona BA U20 3+ goals

19%

Itabuna EC U20 1+ goals

65%

Itabuna EC U20 2+ goals

28%

Itabuna EC U20 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Barcelona BA U20 (draw refunded)

64%

Itabuna EC U20 (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barcelona BA U20 at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.10 · 21 matches

Itabuna EC U20 away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barcelona BA U20 attack 1.62 + Itabuna EC U20 defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.48

Itabuna EC U20 attack 1.00 + Barcelona BA U20 defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Barcelona BA U20 scores more

47%

level

26%

Itabuna EC U20 scores more

27%

Barcelona BA U20 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Barcelona BA U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff