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Itabirito vs BOA — Mineiro - 2 2026

Itabirito
Itabirito
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
BOA
BOA
Unknown 66'
Unknown 90+7'
6/24/2023Mineiro - 2Mineiro - 2 · Hexagonal Final - 1Campo Do União

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Itabirito57%
×Draw28%
BOA15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Itabirito
1.40
BOA
0.57

Itabirito creates 146% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 32 away

creates per match

Itabirito
1.60
BOA
0.75

allows per match

Itabirito
0.40
BOA
1.19

finishing

Itabirito+0.00on par
BOA+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 69Over: 3169%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 67Yes: 3367%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Itabirito ↓

BOA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Itabirito or draw
85%
Itabirito or BOA
72%
Draw or BOA
43%

Winning margin

Itabirito wins by 2+
29%
BOA wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Itabirito 1+ goals
75%
Itabirito 2+ goals
41%
Itabirito 3+ goals
17%
BOA 1+ goals
43%
BOA 2+ goals
11%
BOA 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Itabirito (draw refunded)
79%
BOA (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Itabirito at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.40 · 10 matches

BOA away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.19 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Itabirito attack 1.60 + BOA defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.40

BOA attack 0.75 + Itabirito defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Itabirito scores more
57%
level
28%
BOA scores more
15%

Itabirito at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Itabirito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

66'
90+7'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Itabirito 1 – 1 BOA

Itabirito and BOA drew 1-1 in Mineiro - 2 on June 24, 2023.

Goals: ? (66', 90+7').

The match was played at Campo Do União in Itabirito, Minas Gerais.