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BOA vs Itabirito — Mineiro - 2 2026

BOA
BOA
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Itabirito
Itabiritoadvanced
Unknown 90+4', 53'
8/12/2023Mineiro - 2Mineiro - 2 · Hexagonal Final - 10Estádio Municipal Prefeito Dilzon Luiz de Melo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

BOA32%
×Draw27%
Itabirito41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BOA
1.15
Itabirito
1.34

Itabirito creates 17% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 11 away

creates per match

BOA
1.03
Itabirito
1.45

allows per match

BOA
1.23
Itabirito
1.27

finishing

BOA+0.00on par
Itabirito+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 55Over: 4555%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 50Yes: 5050%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BOA ↓

Itabirito →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

BOA or draw
59%
BOA or Itabirito
73%
Draw or Itabirito
68%

Winning margin

BOA wins by 2+
13%
Itabirito wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

BOA 1+ goals
68%
BOA 2+ goals
32%
BOA 3+ goals
11%
Itabirito 1+ goals
74%
Itabirito 2+ goals
39%
Itabirito 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

BOA (draw refunded)
44%
Itabirito (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BOA at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.23 · 31 matches

Itabirito away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.27 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BOA attack 1.03 + Itabirito defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.15

Itabirito attack 1.45 + BOA defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

BOA scores more
32%
level
27%
Itabirito scores more
41%

Itabirito at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Itabirito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

53'
89'
90+4'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: BOA vs Itabirito

Itabirito beat BOA 2-0 in Mineiro - 2 on August 12, 2023.

Goals: ? (53', 90+4').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Prefeito Dilzon Luiz de Melo in Varginha, Minas Gerais.