Istra 1961 0–0 Sibenik: Result & Stats | HNL

Istra 1961

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sibenik

10/23/2022

HNL · Round 14Stadion Aldo Drosina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Istra 196138%

×Draw28%

Sibenik34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Istra 1961Expected goals in this matchSibenik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.11

Istra 1961

1.20

Sibenik

1.11

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 9 away

1.15

creates per match

1.01

1.22

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Istra 1961

1.15

Sibenik

1.01

allows per match

Istra 1961

1.22

Sibenik

1.25

+0.08on par

finishing

+0.21scores more than expected

finishing

Istra 1961+0.08on par

Sibenik+0.21scores more

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Istra 1961 ↓

Sibenik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Istra 1961 or draw

66%

Istra 1961 or Sibenik

72%

Draw or Sibenik

62%

Winning margin

Istra 1961 wins by 2+

16%

Sibenik wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Istra 1961 1+ goals

70%

Istra 1961 2+ goals

34%

Istra 1961 3+ goals

12%

Sibenik 1+ goals

67%

Sibenik 2+ goals

30%

Sibenik 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Istra 1961 (draw refunded)

53%

Sibenik (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Istra 1961 at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.22 · 26 matches

Sibenik away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.25 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Istra 1961 attack 1.15 + Sibenik defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.20

Sibenik attack 1.01 + Istra 1961 defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Istra 1961 scores more

38%

level

28%

Sibenik scores more

34%

Istra 1961 at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Istra 1961 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

R. Boultam

Istra 1961 · F

7.7

Match Events

18'

I. Vidović← P. Salomon

34'

Marcos Mina

62'

M. Žgomba← F. Mlinar

63'

V. Petković← A. Kadušić

69'

S. Marasovic← D. Skorup

69'

L. Kreković← D. Čop

73'

M. Rovis← L. Marin

78'

Burgui← N. Rak

84'

Einar Galilea

84'

L. Travaglia← M. Bakrar

84'

K. Kopljar← R. Boultam

89'

Vinko Petković

90+1'

Kristijan Kopljar

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IstraSibenik

Overview

59%Possession41%

6Total Shots4

4Corners3

14Fouls12

Shots

6Total Shots4

3On Target0

3Off Target2

0Blocked2

5Inside Box1

1Outside Box3

Passing

59%Possession41%

539Total Passes387

450Accurate Passes301

83%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

14Fouls12

3Yellow Cards1

1Offsides2