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Istra 1961 vs Inter Zapresic — HNL 2018

Istra 1961
Istra 1961
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Inter Zapresic
Inter Zapresic
6/16/2020HNLHNL · Round 29Stadion Aldo Drosina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Istra 196151%
×Draw24%
Inter Zapresic25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Istra 1961
1.71
Inter Zapresic
1.13

Istra 1961 creates 51% more chances

Season form · 144 home / 36 away

creates per match

Istra 1961
1.11
Inter Zapresic
0.92

allows per match

Istra 1961
1.33
Inter Zapresic
2.31

finishing

Istra 1961+0.00on par
Inter Zapresic+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Istra 1961 ↓

Inter Zapresic →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Istra 1961 or draw
75%
Istra 1961 or Inter Zapresic
76%
Draw or Inter Zapresic
49%

Winning margin

Istra 1961 wins by 2+
27%
Inter Zapresic wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Istra 1961 1+ goals
82%
Istra 1961 2+ goals
51%
Istra 1961 3+ goals
24%
Inter Zapresic 1+ goals
68%
Inter Zapresic 2+ goals
31%
Inter Zapresic 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Istra 1961 (draw refunded)
67%
Inter Zapresic (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Istra 1961 at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.33 · 144 matches

Inter Zapresic away — creates 0.92, concedes 2.31 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Istra 1961 attack 1.11 + Inter Zapresic defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 1.71

Inter Zapresic attack 0.92 + Istra 1961 defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Istra 1961 scores more
51%
level
24%
Inter Zapresic scores more
25%

Istra 1961 at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Istra 1961 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

HNL: Istra 1961 2–0 Inter Zapresic

Istra 1961 beat Inter Zapresic 2-0 in HNL on June 16, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Aldo Drosina in Pula.