Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Inter Zapresic vs Istra 1961 — HNL 2018

Inter Zapresic
Inter Zapresic
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Istra 1961
Istra 1961
1/31/2020HNLHNL · Round 20Stadion Ivan Laljak-Ivić

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Inter Zapresic37%
×Draw25%
Istra 196138%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Inter Zapresic
1.39
Istra 1961
1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 36 home / 144 away

creates per match

Inter Zapresic
1.08
Istra 1961
0.81

allows per match

Inter Zapresic
2.03
Istra 1961
1.69

finishing

Inter Zapresic+0.00on par
Istra 1961+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Zapresic ↓

Istra 1961 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Inter Zapresic or draw
62%
Inter Zapresic or Istra 1961
75%
Draw or Istra 1961
63%

Winning margin

Inter Zapresic wins by 2+
17%
Istra 1961 wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Inter Zapresic 1+ goals
75%
Inter Zapresic 2+ goals
40%
Inter Zapresic 3+ goals
16%
Istra 1961 1+ goals
76%
Istra 1961 2+ goals
41%
Istra 1961 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Inter Zapresic (draw refunded)
49%
Istra 1961 (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter Zapresic at home — creates 1.08, concedes 2.03 · 36 matches

Istra 1961 away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.69 · 144 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter Zapresic attack 1.08 + Istra 1961 defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.39

Istra 1961 attack 0.81 + Inter Zapresic defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Inter Zapresic scores more
37%
level
25%
Istra 1961 scores more
38%

Istra 1961 at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Istra 1961 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

HNL: Inter Zapresic 2–0 Istra 1961

Inter Zapresic beat Istra 1961 2-0 in HNL on January 31, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Ivan Laljak-Ivić in Zaprešić.