Istra 1961 1–3 HNK Hajduk Split: Result & Stats

Istra 1961

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

HNK Hajduk Split

4/7/2026

HNL · Round 28Stadion Aldo Drosina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 144+ matches

Istra 196130%

×Draw27%

HNK Hajduk Split43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Istra 1961Expected goals in this matchHNK Hajduk Split

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.38

Istra 1961

1.10

HNK Hajduk Split

1.38

HNK Hajduk Split creates 25% more chances

Season form · 144 home / 144 away

1.11

creates per match

1.43

1.33

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Istra 1961

1.11

HNK Hajduk Split

1.43

allows per match

Istra 1961

1.33

HNK Hajduk Split

1.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Istra 1961+0.00on par

HNK Hajduk Split+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Istra 1961 ↓

HNK Hajduk Split →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–112%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Istra 1961 or draw

57%

Istra 1961 or HNK Hajduk Split

73%

Draw or HNK Hajduk Split

70%

Winning margin

Istra 1961 wins by 2+

12%

HNK Hajduk Split wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Istra 1961 1+ goals

67%

Istra 1961 2+ goals

30%

Istra 1961 3+ goals

10%

HNK Hajduk Split 1+ goals

75%

HNK Hajduk Split 2+ goals

40%

HNK Hajduk Split 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Istra 1961 (draw refunded)

41%

HNK Hajduk Split (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Istra 1961 at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.33 · 144 matches

HNK Hajduk Split away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.09 · 144 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Istra 1961 attack 1.11 + HNK Hajduk Split defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.10

HNK Hajduk Split attack 1.43 + Istra 1961 defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Istra 1961 scores more

30%

level

27%

HNK Hajduk Split scores more

43%

HNK Hajduk Split at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "HNK Hajduk Split will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff