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HNK Hajduk Split vs Istra 1961 — HNL 2018

HNK Hajduk Split
HNK Hajduk Split
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Istra 1961
Istra 1961
8/3/2025HNLHNL · Round 1Stadion Poljud

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 144+ matches

HNK Hajduk Split58%
×Draw24%
Istra 196118%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HNK Hajduk Split
1.73
Istra 1961
0.85

HNK Hajduk Split creates 104% more chances

Season form · 144 home / 144 away

creates per match

HNK Hajduk Split
1.76
Istra 1961
0.81

allows per match

HNK Hajduk Split
0.89
Istra 1961
1.69

finishing

HNK Hajduk Split+0.00on par
Istra 1961+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HNK Hajduk Split ↓

Istra 1961 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

HNK Hajduk Split or draw
82%
HNK Hajduk Split or Istra 1961
76%
Draw or Istra 1961
42%

Winning margin

HNK Hajduk Split wins by 2+
33%
Istra 1961 wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

HNK Hajduk Split 1+ goals
82%
HNK Hajduk Split 2+ goals
52%
HNK Hajduk Split 3+ goals
25%
Istra 1961 1+ goals
57%
Istra 1961 2+ goals
21%
Istra 1961 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

HNK Hajduk Split (draw refunded)
76%
Istra 1961 (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HNK Hajduk Split at home — creates 1.76, concedes 0.89 · 144 matches

Istra 1961 away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.69 · 144 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HNK Hajduk Split attack 1.76 + Istra 1961 defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.73

Istra 1961 attack 0.81 + HNK Hajduk Split defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

HNK Hajduk Split scores more
58%
level
24%
Istra 1961 scores more
18%

HNK Hajduk Split at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "HNK Hajduk Split will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: HNK Hajduk Split vs Istra 1961

HNK Hajduk Split beat Istra 1961 2-1 in HNL on August 3, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Poljud in Split.