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Istiqlol vs Goa — AFC Champions League Two 2025

Istiqlol
Istiqlol
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Goa
Goa
R. Dehghani 74'
R. Soirov 46'
10/1/2025AFC Champions League TwoAFC Champions League Two · Group Stage - 2Hisor Central Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Istiqlol60%
×Draw21%
Goa18%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Istiqlol
2.00
Goa
1.00

Istiqlol creates 100% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Istiqlol
1.33
Goa
0.33

allows per match

Istiqlol
1.67
Goa
2.67

finishing

Istiqlol+0.00on par
Goa+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Istiqlol ↓

Goa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Istiqlol or draw
82%
Istiqlol or Goa
79%
Draw or Goa
40%

Winning margin

Istiqlol wins by 2+
36%
Goa wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Istiqlol 1+ goals
86%
Istiqlol 2+ goals
59%
Istiqlol 3+ goals
32%
Goa 1+ goals
63%
Goa 2+ goals
26%
Goa 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Istiqlol (draw refunded)
77%
Goa (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Istiqlol at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Goa away — creates 0.33, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Istiqlol attack 1.33 + Goa defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.00

Goa attack 0.33 + Istiqlol defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Istiqlol scores more
60%
level
21%
Goa scores more
18%

Istiqlol at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Istiqlol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
R. SoirovIstiqlolIstiqlol · F
8.7

Match Events

2'
Manuchekhr Safarov
46'
R. Soirov
66'
R. Dehghani← S. Haghnazari
67'
A. Rabeeh A K← B. Fernandes
67'
U. Singh← B. Singh
69'
Udanta Singh Kumam
74'
R. Dehghani↳ M. Rakhimov
75'
Reza Dehghani
76'
R. Kamolov← M. Rakhimov
76'
P. Komolafe← A. Dzhalilov
80'
M. Nemil← J. Siverio
83'
H. Patre← A. Chhetri
90'
Kamolov Rustam
90+4'
M. Gafurov← R. Soirov

Possession

57%Istiqlol

Shots

13Istiqlol

Pass accuracy

51%Istiqlol

Statistics

IstiqlolGoa
Overview
57%Possession43%
13Total Shots7
4Corners2
14Fouls7
Shots
13Total Shots7
4On Target1
8Off Target4
1Blocked2
4Inside Box6
9Outside Box1
Passing
57%Possession43%
470Total Passes348
388Accurate Passes277
83%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
Discipline
14Fouls7
3Yellow Cards1
3Offsides1

Match Recap: Istiqlol vs Goa

Istiqlol beat Goa 2-0 in AFC Champions League Two on October 1, 2025.

Goals: R. Soirov (46'), R. Dehghani (74').

Istiqlol controlled possession (57%) and registered 13 shots to 7.

The match was played at Hisor Central Stadium in Hisor.