Goa 1–2 Istiqlol: Result & Stats

Goa

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Istiqlol

D. Drazic 8'

A. Juraboev 56' (pen)

P. Komolafe 53'

12/24/2025

AFC Champions League Two · Group Stage - 6Pandit Jawaharlal Nehru Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Goa48%

×Draw23%

Istiqlol29%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GoaExpected goals in this matchIstiqlol

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.38

Goa

1.83

Istiqlol

1.38

Goa creates 33% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

1.00

creates per match

1.00

1.75

allows per match

2.67

creates per match

Goa

1.00

Istiqlol

1.00

allows per match

Goa

1.75

Istiqlol

2.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Goa+0.00on par

Istiqlol+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Goa ↓

Istiqlol →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Goa or draw

71%

Goa or Istiqlol

77%

Draw or Istiqlol

52%

Winning margin

Goa wins by 2+

26%

Istiqlol wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Goa 1+ goals

84%

Goa 2+ goals

54%

Goa 3+ goals

28%

Istiqlol 1+ goals

75%

Istiqlol 2+ goals

40%

Istiqlol 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Goa (draw refunded)

62%

Istiqlol (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Goa at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

Istiqlol away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Goa attack 1.00 + Istiqlol defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 1.83

Istiqlol attack 1.00 + Goa defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Goa scores more

48%

level

23%

Istiqlol scores more

29%

Goa at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Goa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

71

D. Drazic

Goa · M

7.7

Match Events

8'

D. Drazic

29'

Ekhson Pandzhshanbe

46'

A. Nazarov← R. Turkaj

53'

P. Komolafe

56'

A. JuraboevPenalty

59'

B. Fernandes← P. Gaonkar

59'

A. Rabeeh A K← H. Patre

70'

73'

74'

74'

77'

82'

86'

S. Sulaymonov← S. Haghnazari

90+3'

S. Carvalho← N. Tamang

90+3'

L. Malsawmtluanga← B. Singh

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GoaIstiqlol

Overview

42%Possession58%

14Total Shots19

4Corners3

10Fouls17

Shots

14Total Shots19

7On Target8

6Off Target7

1Blocked4

7Inside Box13

7Outside Box6

Passing

42%Possession58%

390Total Passes532

295Accurate Passes459

76%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

6Saves6

Discipline

10Fouls17

1Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

1Offsides2

Match Recap: Goa vs Istiqlol

Istiqlol beat Goa 2-1 in AFC Champions League Two on December 24, 2025.

Goals: D. Drazic (8'), P. Komolafe (53'), A. Juraboev (56' pen).

Istiqlol controlled possession (58%) and registered 19 shots to 14.

The match was played at Pandit Jawaharlal Nehru Stadium in Margao.

Goa vs Istiqlol — AFC Champions League Two 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Goa vs Istiqlol