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Istiqlol vs Dordoi Bishkek — AFC Cup 2018

Istiqlol
Istiqlol
CANC
13:00
Dordoi Bishkek
Dordoi Bishkek
10/26/2020AFC CupAFC Cup · Group Stage - 3Respublikanskiy Stadion im. M.V. Frunze

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Istiqlol49%
×Draw24%
Dordoi Bishkek27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Istiqlol
1.69
Dordoi Bishkek
1.21

Istiqlol creates 40% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 6 away

creates per match

Istiqlol
1.38
Dordoi Bishkek
1.33

allows per match

Istiqlol
1.08
Dordoi Bishkek
2.00

finishing

Istiqlol+0.00on par
Dordoi Bishkek+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Istiqlol ↓

Dordoi Bishkek →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Istiqlol or draw
73%
Istiqlol or Dordoi Bishkek
76%
Draw or Dordoi Bishkek
51%

Winning margin

Istiqlol wins by 2+
26%
Dordoi Bishkek wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Istiqlol 1+ goals
82%
Istiqlol 2+ goals
50%
Istiqlol 3+ goals
24%
Dordoi Bishkek 1+ goals
70%
Dordoi Bishkek 2+ goals
34%
Dordoi Bishkek 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Istiqlol (draw refunded)
64%
Dordoi Bishkek (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Istiqlol at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.08 · 13 matches

Dordoi Bishkek away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Istiqlol attack 1.38 + Dordoi Bishkek defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.69

Dordoi Bishkek attack 1.33 + Istiqlol defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Istiqlol scores more
49%
level
24%
Dordoi Bishkek scores more
27%

Istiqlol at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Istiqlol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Istiqlol host Dordoi Bishkek

October 26, 2020: Istiqlol take on Dordoi Bishkek in AFC Cup. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Istiqlol host Dordoi Bishkek at Respublikanskiy Stadion im. M.V. Frunze.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.