Dordoi Bishkek 2–1 Istiqlol: Result & Stats

Dordoi Bishkek

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Istiqlol

5/15/2019

AFC Cup · Group Stage - 4Stadion im. Dolena Omurzakova (Bishkek)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Dordoi Bishkek47%

×Draw24%

Istiqlol29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dordoi BishkekExpected goals in this matchIstiqlol

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.25

Dordoi Bishkek

1.67

Istiqlol

1.25

Dordoi Bishkek creates 34% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 12 away

1.17

creates per match

1.17

1.33

allows per match

2.17

creates per match

Dordoi Bishkek

1.17

Istiqlol

1.17

allows per match

Dordoi Bishkek

1.33

Istiqlol

2.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dordoi Bishkek+0.00on par

Istiqlol+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dordoi Bishkek ↓

Istiqlol →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Dordoi Bishkek or draw

71%

Dordoi Bishkek or Istiqlol

76%

Draw or Istiqlol

53%

Winning margin

Dordoi Bishkek wins by 2+

25%

Istiqlol wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Dordoi Bishkek 1+ goals

81%

Dordoi Bishkek 2+ goals

50%

Dordoi Bishkek 3+ goals

23%

Istiqlol 1+ goals

71%

Istiqlol 2+ goals

36%

Istiqlol 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Dordoi Bishkek (draw refunded)

62%

Istiqlol (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dordoi Bishkek at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

Istiqlol away — creates 1.17, concedes 2.17 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dordoi Bishkek attack 1.17 + Istiqlol defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.67

Istiqlol attack 1.17 + Dordoi Bishkek defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Dordoi Bishkek scores more

47%

level

24%

Istiqlol scores more

29%

Dordoi Bishkek at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Dordoi Bishkek will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Cup: Dordoi Bishkek 2–1 Istiqlol

Dordoi Bishkek beat Istiqlol 2-1 in AFC Cup on May 15, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion im. Dolena Omurzakova (Bishkek).

Dordoi Bishkek vs Istiqlol — AFC Cup 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

AFC Cup: Dordoi Bishkek 2–1 Istiqlol