Istiqlol 2–1 Barki Tajik: Result & Stats

Istiqlol

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Barki Tajik

A. Dzhalilov 73'

R. Soirov 55'

F. Asante 47'

9/24/2025

Vysshaya Liga · Round 17Hisor Central Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Istiqlol68%

×Draw19%

Barki Tajik13%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IstiqlolExpected goals in this matchBarki Tajik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.17

0.84

Istiqlol

2.17

Barki Tajik

0.84

Istiqlol creates 158% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 28 away

2.97

creates per match

1.25

0.44

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Istiqlol

2.97

Barki Tajik

1.25

allows per match

Istiqlol

0.44

Barki Tajik

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Istiqlol+0.00on par

Barki Tajik+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Istiqlol ↓

Barki Tajik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Istiqlol or draw

87%

Istiqlol or Barki Tajik

81%

Draw or Barki Tajik

32%

Winning margin

Istiqlol wins by 2+

44%

Barki Tajik wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Istiqlol 1+ goals

89%

Istiqlol 2+ goals

64%

Istiqlol 3+ goals

36%

Barki Tajik 1+ goals

57%

Barki Tajik 2+ goals

21%

Barki Tajik 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Istiqlol (draw refunded)

84%

Barki Tajik (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Istiqlol at home — creates 2.97, concedes 0.44 · 32 matches

Barki Tajik away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.36 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Istiqlol attack 2.97 + Barki Tajik defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 2.17

Barki Tajik attack 1.25 + Istiqlol defence 0.44 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Istiqlol scores more

68%

level

19%

Barki Tajik scores more

13%

Istiqlol at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Istiqlol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

47'

F. Asante

55'

R. Soirov

73'

A. Dzhalilov

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff