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Barki Tajik vs Istiqlol — Vysshaya Liga 2025

Barki Tajik
Barki Tajik
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Istiqlol
Istiqlol
J. Akpudje 56'
4/20/2025Vysshaya LigaVysshaya Liga · Round 6Hisor Central Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Barki Tajik18%
×Draw25%
Istiqlol57%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barki Tajik
0.78
Istiqlol
1.62

Istiqlol creates 108% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 32 away

creates per match

Barki Tajik
0.93
Istiqlol
2.16

allows per match

Barki Tajik
1.07
Istiqlol
0.63

finishing

Barki Tajik+0.00on par
Istiqlol+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barki Tajik ↓

Istiqlol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–115%
0–212%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–14%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Barki Tajik or draw
43%
Barki Tajik or Istiqlol
75%
Draw or Istiqlol
82%

Winning margin

Barki Tajik wins by 2+
5%
Istiqlol wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Barki Tajik 1+ goals
54%
Barki Tajik 2+ goals
18%
Barki Tajik 3+ goals
4%
Istiqlol 1+ goals
80%
Istiqlol 2+ goals
48%
Istiqlol 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Barki Tajik (draw refunded)
24%
Istiqlol (draw refunded)
76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barki Tajik at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.07 · 27 matches

Istiqlol away — creates 2.16, concedes 0.63 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barki Tajik attack 0.93 + Istiqlol defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.78

Istiqlol attack 2.16 + Barki Tajik defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Barki Tajik scores more
18%
level
25%
Istiqlol scores more
57%

Istiqlol at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Istiqlol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

56'
J. Akpudje

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Vysshaya Liga: Barki Tajik 0–1 Istiqlol

Istiqlol beat Barki Tajik 1-0 in Vysshaya Liga on April 20, 2025.

Goals: J. Akpudje (56').

The match was played at Hisor Central Stadium in Hisor.