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Istiqlol vs Al Zawra'a — AFC Champions League Two 2025

Istiqlol
Istiqlol
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Al Zawra'a
Al Zawra'a
P. Komolafe 84'
A. Juraboev 20'
Ibrahim 4'
10/22/2025AFC Champions League TwoAFC Champions League Two · Group Stage - 3Central Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Istiqlol45%
×Draw23%
Al Zawra'a32%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Istiqlol
1.83
Al Zawra'a
1.50

Istiqlol creates 22% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Istiqlol
1.33
Al Zawra'a
1.33

allows per match

Istiqlol
1.67
Al Zawra'a
2.33

finishing

Istiqlol+0.00on par
Al Zawra'a+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Istiqlol ↓

Al Zawra'a →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
65%35%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Istiqlol or draw
68%
Istiqlol or Al Zawra'a
77%
Draw or Al Zawra'a
55%

Winning margin

Istiqlol wins by 2+
25%
Al Zawra'a wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Istiqlol 1+ goals
84%
Istiqlol 2+ goals
54%
Istiqlol 3+ goals
28%
Al Zawra'a 1+ goals
78%
Al Zawra'a 2+ goals
44%
Al Zawra'a 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Istiqlol (draw refunded)
59%
Al Zawra'a (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Istiqlol at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Al Zawra'a away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Istiqlol attack 1.33 + Al Zawra'a defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.83

Al Zawra'a attack 1.33 + Istiqlol defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Istiqlol scores more
45%
level
23%
Al Zawra'a scores more
32%

Istiqlol at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Istiqlol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17
E. PandzhshanbeIstiqlolIstiqlol · M
7.6

Match Events

4'
Ibrahim
14'
Muhammadjoni Hasan
20'
A. Juraboev
47'
Joseph Okoro
52'
Rustam Soirov
62'
P. Komolafe← S. Haghnazari
71'
C. Bitang← H. F. Kadhim
77'
M. Gafurov← R. Soirov
78'
T. Islomov← R. Dehghani
82'
Karar Nabeel
84'
P. Komolafe↳ M. Gafurov
85'
Jalal Hassan
85'
M. Qasim← H. Abdulkareem
85'
M. Mohammad← M. Humaidan
88'
H. Lawend← N. Al Rashdan
90+3'
K. Suslov← M. Rakhimov

Possession

45%Istiqlol

Shots

10Istiqlol

Pass accuracy

49%Istiqlol

Statistics

IstiqlolAl
Overview
45%Possession55%
10Total Shots17
5Corners6
16Fouls9
Shots
10Total Shots17
3On Target9
6Off Target7
1Blocked1
4Inside Box5
6Outside Box12
Passing
45%Possession55%
348Total Passes436
272Accurate Passes347
78%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
8Saves1
Discipline
16Fouls9
3Yellow Cards2
1Offsides4

AFC Champions League Two: Istiqlol 2–1 Al Zawra'a

Istiqlol beat Al Zawra'a 2-1 in AFC Champions League Two on October 22, 2025.

Goals: Ibrahim (4'), A. Juraboev (20'), P. Komolafe (84').

Al Zawra'a controlled possession (55%) and registered 17 shots to 10.

The match was played at Central Stadium in Hisor.