Al Zawra'a 2–1 Istiqlol: Result & Stats

Al Zawra'a

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Istiqlol

Ibrahim 53' (pen)

H. Abdulkareem 7'

A. Juraboev 64' (pen)

11/5/2025

AFC Champions League Two · Group Stage - 4Al-Zawraa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Al Zawra'a59%

×Draw20%

Istiqlol21%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al Zawra'aExpected goals in this matchIstiqlol

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.21

1.25

Al Zawra'a

2.21

Istiqlol

1.25

Al Zawra'a creates 77% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

1.75

creates per match

1.00

1.50

allows per match

2.67

creates per match

Al Zawra'a

1.75

Istiqlol

1.00

allows per match

Al Zawra'a

1.50

Istiqlol

2.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Zawra'a+0.00on par

Istiqlol+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Zawra'a ↓

Istiqlol →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Al Zawra'a or draw

79%

Al Zawra'a or Istiqlol

80%

Draw or Istiqlol

41%

Winning margin

Al Zawra'a wins by 2+

37%

Istiqlol wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Al Zawra'a 1+ goals

89%

Al Zawra'a 2+ goals

65%

Al Zawra'a 3+ goals

38%

Istiqlol 1+ goals

71%

Istiqlol 2+ goals

36%

Istiqlol 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Al Zawra'a (draw refunded)

74%

Istiqlol (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Zawra'a at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Istiqlol away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Zawra'a attack 1.75 + Istiqlol defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.21

Istiqlol attack 1.00 + Al Zawra'a defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Al Zawra'a scores more

59%

level

20%

Istiqlol scores more

21%

Al Zawra'a at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Al Zawra'a will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

K. Nabeel

Al Zawra'a · M

7.7

Match Events

7'

H. Abdulkareem

34'

Hussein Falah

53'

IbrahimPenalty

56'

M. Gafurov← S. Haghnazari

56'

P. Komolafe← R. Dehghani

59'

Masrur Gafurov

64'

A. JuraboevPenalty

67'

C. Bitang← H. F. Kadhim

68'

Clarence Bitang

78'

M. Mohammad← H. Abdulkareem

78'

R. Bani Hani← M. Qasim

79'

S. M. Mahdi Al Saedi← D. Ismael

82'

T. Islomov← M. Rakhimov

85'

Manuchekhr Safarov

87'

R. Kamolov← R. Soirov

88'

M. Jabbar← Ibrahim

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AlIstiqlol

Overview

55%Possession45%

9Total Shots9

4Corners5

11Fouls8

Shots

9Total Shots9

3On Target2

3Off Target7

3Blocked0

5Inside Box4

4Outside Box5

Passing

55%Possession45%

453Total Passes367

363Accurate Passes282

80%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

11Fouls8

2Yellow Cards2

1Offsides8

Match Recap: Al Zawra'a vs Istiqlol

Al Zawra'a beat Istiqlol 2-1 in AFC Champions League Two on November 5, 2025.

Goals: H. Abdulkareem (7'), Ibrahim (53' pen), A. Juraboev (64' pen).

Al Zawra'a controlled possession (55%) and registered 9 shots to 9.

The match was played at Al-Zawraa Stadium in Baghdad.

Al Zawra'a vs Istiqlol — AFC Champions League Two 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Al Zawra'a vs Istiqlol