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Istiqlol vs Al-Rayyan SC — AFC Champions League 2018

Istiqlol
Istiqlol
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Al-Rayyan SC
Al-Rayyan SC
4/8/2022AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Group Stage - 1King Fahd International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Istiqlol42%
×Draw26%
Al-Rayyan SC32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Istiqlol
1.44
Al-Rayyan SC
1.24

Istiqlol creates 16% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 18 away

creates per match

Istiqlol
1.10
Al-Rayyan SC
1.28

allows per match

Istiqlol
1.20
Al-Rayyan SC
1.78

finishing

Istiqlol+0.00on par
Al-Rayyan SC+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Istiqlol ↓

Al-Rayyan SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Istiqlol or draw
68%
Istiqlol or Al-Rayyan SC
74%
Draw or Al-Rayyan SC
58%

Winning margin

Istiqlol wins by 2+
20%
Al-Rayyan SC wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Istiqlol 1+ goals
76%
Istiqlol 2+ goals
42%
Istiqlol 3+ goals
18%
Al-Rayyan SC 1+ goals
71%
Al-Rayyan SC 2+ goals
35%
Al-Rayyan SC 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Istiqlol (draw refunded)
56%
Al-Rayyan SC (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Istiqlol at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

Al-Rayyan SC away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.78 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Istiqlol attack 1.10 + Al-Rayyan SC defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.44

Al-Rayyan SC attack 1.28 + Istiqlol defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Istiqlol scores more
42%
level
26%
Al-Rayyan SC scores more
32%

Istiqlol at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Istiqlol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Champions League: Istiqlol 2–3 Al-Rayyan SC

Al-Rayyan SC beat Istiqlol 3-2 in AFC Champions League on April 8, 2022.

The match was played at King Fahd International Stadium in Riyadh.