Al-Rayyan SC 1–0 Istiqlol: Result & Stats

Al-Rayyan SC

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Istiqlol

4/23/2022

AFC Champions League · Group Stage - 5King Fahd International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Al-Rayyan SC40%

×Draw25%

Istiqlol36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al-Rayyan SCExpected goals in this matchIstiqlol

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.39

Al-Rayyan SC

1.48

Istiqlol

1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 12 away

1.20

creates per match

0.83

1.95

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Al-Rayyan SC

1.20

Istiqlol

0.83

allows per match

Al-Rayyan SC

1.95

Istiqlol

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al-Rayyan SC+0.00on par

Istiqlol+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Rayyan SC ↓

Istiqlol →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Al-Rayyan SC or draw

64%

Al-Rayyan SC or Istiqlol

75%

Draw or Istiqlol

60%

Winning margin

Al-Rayyan SC wins by 2+

19%

Istiqlol wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Al-Rayyan SC 1+ goals

77%

Al-Rayyan SC 2+ goals

43%

Al-Rayyan SC 3+ goals

19%

Istiqlol 1+ goals

75%

Istiqlol 2+ goals

40%

Istiqlol 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Al-Rayyan SC (draw refunded)

53%

Istiqlol (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Rayyan SC at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.95 · 20 matches

Istiqlol away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.75 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Rayyan SC attack 1.20 + Istiqlol defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.48

Istiqlol attack 0.83 + Al-Rayyan SC defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Al-Rayyan SC scores more

40%

level

25%

Istiqlol scores more

36%

Al-Rayyan SC at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Al-Rayyan SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff