İstanbulspor 4–0 Fatih Karagümrük: Result & Stats

İstanbulspor

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Fatih Karagümrük

Ton 83'

M. Durmuş 70'

A. Dere 27'

P. Diouf 6'

11/29/2019

1. Lig · Round 13Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

İstanbulspor40%

×Draw26%

Fatih Karagümrük34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

İstanbulsporExpected goals in this matchFatih Karagümrük

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.26

İstanbulspor

1.40

Fatih Karagümrük

1.26

İstanbulspor creates 11% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 37 away

1.72

creates per match

1.35

1.17

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

İstanbulspor

1.72

Fatih Karagümrük

1.35

allows per match

İstanbulspor

1.17

Fatih Karagümrük

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

İstanbulspor+0.00on par

Fatih Karagümrük+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

İstanbulspor ↓

Fatih Karagümrük →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

İstanbulspor or draw

66%

İstanbulspor or Fatih Karagümrük

74%

Draw or Fatih Karagümrük

60%

Winning margin

İstanbulspor wins by 2+

19%

Fatih Karagümrük wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

İstanbulspor 1+ goals

75%

İstanbulspor 2+ goals

41%

İstanbulspor 3+ goals

17%

Fatih Karagümrük 1+ goals

72%

Fatih Karagümrük 2+ goals

36%

Fatih Karagümrük 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

İstanbulspor (draw refunded)

54%

Fatih Karagümrük (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

İstanbulspor at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.17 · 110 matches

Fatih Karagümrük away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.08 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

İstanbulspor attack 1.72 + Fatih Karagümrük defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.40

Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.35 + İstanbulspor defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

İstanbulspor scores more

40%

level

26%

Fatih Karagümrük scores more

34%

İstanbulspor at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "İstanbulspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

P. Diouf↳ M. Yıldırım

27'

A. Dere↳ O. Ergün

31'

Z. Yildirim

41'

M. Durmus

54'

C. Ortakaya

64'

B. Özbek← Ç. Ortakaya

67'

O. Akgün← A. Dere

70'

M. Durmuş

73'

T. Şahin← R. Civelek

76'

A. Sayyadmanesh← M. Durmuş

77'

A. Erdem← B. Özbek

78'

A. Diouf Papa

79'

T. Sahin

83'

Ton↳ E. Öztürk

88'

J. Mensah← P. Diouf

İstanbulspor

Fatih

1

23

92

5

21

8

65

▼

Ortakaya

19

Morkaya

28

▼

15

7

1

21

A

Yıldırım

3

⚽

Ton

88

Aksu

7

⚽

▼

Dere

11

Čajič

17

Etoga

8

⚽

▼

Durmuş

5

A

Öztürk

10

A

Ergün

53

⚽

▼

Diouf

Manager: T. Avcı

67'▲O. Akgün←▼A. Dere

76'▲A. Sayyadmanesh←▼M. Durmuş

88'▲J. Mensah←▼P. Diouf

İstanbulspor substitutes

28Akgün16Sayyadmanesh12Mensah34Aytemur23Yalçın86Görmez90Kaya13Berber77Bağış

Manager: G. Bulak

64'▲B. Özbek←▼Ç. Ortakaya

73'▲T. Şahin←▼R. Civelek

77'▲A. Erdem←▼B. Özbek

Fatih Karagümrük substitutes

88Özbek17Şahin3Erdem93Özer22Kuruçuk9Sosseh14Tatlı16Yıldırım