Fatih Karagümrük 0–0 İstanbulspor: Result & Stats

Fatih Karagümrük

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

İstanbulspor

12/17/2025

Türkiye Kupası · Group Stage - 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Fatih Karagümrük58%

×Draw21%

İstanbulspor20%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fatih KaragümrükExpected goals in this matchİstanbulspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.01

1.10

Fatih Karagümrük

2.01

İstanbulspor

1.10

Fatih Karagümrük creates 83% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 8 away

1.89

creates per match

1.00

1.21

allows per match

2.13

creates per match

Fatih Karagümrük

1.89

İstanbulspor

1.00

allows per match

Fatih Karagümrük

1.21

İstanbulspor

2.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fatih Karagümrük+0.00on par

İstanbulspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fatih Karagümrük ↓

İstanbulspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Fatih Karagümrük or draw

80%

Fatih Karagümrük or İstanbulspor

79%

Draw or İstanbulspor

42%

Winning margin

Fatih Karagümrük wins by 2+

35%

İstanbulspor wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Fatih Karagümrük 1+ goals

87%

Fatih Karagümrük 2+ goals

59%

Fatih Karagümrük 3+ goals

32%

İstanbulspor 1+ goals

67%

İstanbulspor 2+ goals

30%

İstanbulspor 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Fatih Karagümrük (draw refunded)

74%

İstanbulspor (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fatih Karagümrük at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

İstanbulspor away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.89 + İstanbulspor defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 2.01

İstanbulspor attack 1.00 + Fatih Karagümrük defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Fatih Karagümrük scores more

58%

level

21%

İstanbulspor scores more

20%

Fatih Karagümrük at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Fatih Karagümrük will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

42'

A. Gray

46'

A. Sivri← Serginho

46'

J. Balkovec← C. Kurukalip

59'

B. Ozcan← A. Demirol

66'

S. Yavuz← M. Sol

74'

A. Cinar

76'

D. D. Fofana← D. Johnson

78'

F. K. Ay← E. Sandikci

87'

T. Yilmaz← C. Sahin

87'

B. Bozkus← E. Koseoglu

Fatih

İstanbulspor

28

Tutar

92

Colak

27

▼

32

40

94

83

70

▼

Sahin

31

▼

Sandikci

30

Cham

99

▼

96

47

94

32

33

▼

Kurukalip

11

▼

Johnson

34

▼

Demirol

14

Doh

72

Kalayci

70

▼

Serginho

91

Gray

Manager: Onur Korkmaz

46'▲A. Sivri←▼Serginho

46'▲J. Balkovec←▼C. Kurukalip

59'▲B. Ozcan←▼A. Demirol

76'▲D. D. Fofana←▼D. Johnson

Fatih Karagümrük substitutes

98Evli5Kranevitter8Ozcan17Sivri19Fofana20Kalpakli21Cukur24Ersoy29Balkovec

Manager: Mustafa Avci

66'▲S. Yavuz←▼M. Sol

78'▲F. K. Ay←▼E. Sandikci

87'▲T. Yilmaz←▼C. Sahin

87'▲B. Bozkus←▼E. Koseoglu

İstanbulspor substitutes

59Arda2Bahadir33Ay35Yilmaz42Yavuz85Alikan90Alsancak93Yazici95Bozkus96Caliskan