İstanbulspor 1–2 Boluspor: Result & Stats | 1. Lig

İstanbulspor

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Boluspor

Ö. Şahan 49'

F. Hasani 70'

K. Babacar 57'

5/15/2025

1. Lig · Promotion Play-offs - 1st RoundEsenyurt Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

İstanbulspor49%

×Draw23%

Boluspor28%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

İstanbulsporExpected goals in this matchBoluspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

1.29

İstanbulspor

1.80

Boluspor

1.29

İstanbulspor creates 40% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 40 away

2.03

creates per match

1.50

1.08

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

İstanbulspor

2.03

Boluspor

1.50

allows per match

İstanbulspor

1.08

Boluspor

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

İstanbulspor+0.00on par

Boluspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

İstanbulspor ↓

Boluspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

İstanbulspor or draw

72%

İstanbulspor or Boluspor

77%

Draw or Boluspor

51%

Winning margin

İstanbulspor wins by 2+

27%

Boluspor wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

İstanbulspor 1+ goals

83%

İstanbulspor 2+ goals

54%

İstanbulspor 3+ goals

27%

Boluspor 1+ goals

72%

Boluspor 2+ goals

37%

Boluspor 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

İstanbulspor (draw refunded)

64%

Boluspor (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

İstanbulspor at home — creates 2.03, concedes 1.08 · 39 matches

Boluspor away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.57 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

İstanbulspor attack 2.03 + Boluspor defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.80

Boluspor attack 1.50 + İstanbulspor defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

İstanbulspor scores more

49%

level

23%

Boluspor scores more

28%

İstanbulspor at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "İstanbulspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

G. Diarra

İstanbulspor · M

8.0

Match Events

45'

Okan Erdoğan

46'

D. Liço← Jefferson

49'

Ö. Şahan↳ M. Vorobjovas

51'

57'

66'

70'

74'

Ş. Özcan← D. Sambissa

78'

M. Krstovski← Ö. Şahan

78'

K. Şen← K. Sönmez

79'

Naby Oulare

80'

Mário Balbúrdia← İ. Karaoğul

85'

Y. Özer← D. Aksu

87'

K. Aleksić← F. Hasani

87'

K. Arslan← K. Babacar

90'

Enes Alic

90+1'

B. Yıldız← E. Alıç

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

İstanbulsporBoluspor

Overview

55%Possession45%

19Total Shots12

4Corners3

10Fouls17

Shots

19Total Shots12

7On Target7

8Off Target3

4Blocked2

10Inside Box9

9Outside Box3

Passing

55%Possession45%

466Total Passes389

388Accurate Passes307

83%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

5Saves6

Discipline

10Fouls17

2Yellow Cards3

3Offsides1

Match Recap: İstanbulspor vs Boluspor

Boluspor beat İstanbulspor 2-1 in 1. Lig on May 15, 2025.

Goals: Ö. Şahan (49'), K. Babacar (57'), F. Hasani (70').

İstanbulspor controlled possession (55%) and registered 19 shots to 12.

The match was played at Esenyurt Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu in İstanbul.

İstanbulspor vs Boluspor — 1. Lig 2024

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: İstanbulspor vs Boluspor