Boluspor 1–0 İstanbulspor: Result & Stats | 1. Lig

Boluspor

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

İstanbulspor

P. Mukairu 30'

3/10/2025

1. Lig · Round 29Spoi̇nt İnşaat Ümrani̇yespor Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Boluspor48%

×Draw25%

İstanbulspor27%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BolusporExpected goals in this matchİstanbulspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.13

Boluspor

1.58

İstanbulspor

1.13

Boluspor creates 40% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 39 away

1.79

creates per match

1.23

1.03

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Boluspor

1.79

İstanbulspor

1.23

allows per match

Boluspor

1.03

İstanbulspor

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Boluspor+0.00on par

İstanbulspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Boluspor ↓

İstanbulspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Boluspor or draw

73%

Boluspor or İstanbulspor

75%

Draw or İstanbulspor

52%

Winning margin

Boluspor wins by 2+

25%

İstanbulspor wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Boluspor 1+ goals

79%

Boluspor 2+ goals

47%

Boluspor 3+ goals

21%

İstanbulspor 1+ goals

68%

İstanbulspor 2+ goals

31%

İstanbulspor 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Boluspor (draw refunded)

64%

İstanbulspor (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Boluspor at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.03 · 39 matches

İstanbulspor away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.38 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Boluspor attack 1.79 + İstanbulspor defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.58

İstanbulspor attack 1.23 + Boluspor defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Boluspor scores more

48%

level

25%

İstanbulspor scores more

27%

Boluspor at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Boluspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Jefferson

Boluspor · M

7.7

Match Events

30'

P. Mukairu↳ Jefferson

45'

Mário Balbúrdia

46'

E. Gültekin← K. Şen

46'

D. Aksu← F. Tultak

63'

Racine ColyGoal cancelled

64'

K. Aleksić← E. Erdoğan

64'

Ş. Özcan← D. Sambissa

70'

Florian Loshaj

78'

N. Oularé← Mário Balbúrdia

78'

D. Liço← Jefferson

81'

Y. Özer← G. Diarra

89'

A. Koç← P. Mukairu

89'

V. İsgəndərli← F. Hasani

90+6'

Racine Coly

90+2'

Y. Fidan← Y. Bahadır

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Bolusporİstanbulspor

Overview

41%Possession59%

6Total Shots6

0Corners7

15Fouls17

Shots

6Total Shots6

3On Target0

1Off Target3

2Blocked3

2Inside Box2

4Outside Box4

Passing

41%Possession59%

323Total Passes449

247Accurate Passes363

76%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

0Saves2

Discipline

15Fouls17

1Yellow Cards2

2Offsides2

1. Lig: Boluspor 1–0 İstanbulspor

Boluspor beat İstanbulspor 1-0 in 1. Lig on March 10, 2025.

Goals: P. Mukairu (30').

İstanbulspor controlled possession (59%) and registered 6 shots to 6.

The match was played at Spoi̇nt İnşaat Ümrani̇yespor Stadyumu in İstanbul.

Boluspor vs İstanbulspor — 1. Lig 2024

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

1. Lig: Boluspor 1–0 İstanbulspor