İstanbulspor 0–1 Bodrum FK: Result & Stats | 1. Lig

İstanbulspor

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Bodrum FK

T. Seferi 8'

3/22/2026

1. Lig · Round 32Esenyurt Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

İstanbulspor42%

×Draw26%

Bodrum FK32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

İstanbulsporExpected goals in this matchBodrum FK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.21

İstanbulspor

1.42

Bodrum FK

1.21

İstanbulspor creates 17% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 57 away

1.76

creates per match

1.28

1.14

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

İstanbulspor

1.76

Bodrum FK

1.28

allows per match

İstanbulspor

1.14

Bodrum FK

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

İstanbulspor+0.00on par

Bodrum FK+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

İstanbulspor ↓

Bodrum FK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

İstanbulspor or draw

68%

İstanbulspor or Bodrum FK

74%

Draw or Bodrum FK

58%

Winning margin

İstanbulspor wins by 2+

20%

Bodrum FK wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

İstanbulspor 1+ goals

76%

İstanbulspor 2+ goals

41%

İstanbulspor 3+ goals

17%

Bodrum FK 1+ goals

70%

Bodrum FK 2+ goals

34%

Bodrum FK 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

İstanbulspor (draw refunded)

57%

Bodrum FK (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

İstanbulspor at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.14 · 101 matches

Bodrum FK away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.07 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

İstanbulspor attack 1.76 + Bodrum FK defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.42

Bodrum FK attack 1.28 + İstanbulspor defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

İstanbulspor scores more

42%

level

26%

Bodrum FK scores more

32%

İstanbulspor at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "İstanbulspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

A. Ajeti

Bodrum FK · D

8.5

Match Events

8'

T. Seferi↳ A. Ajeti

46'

O. Sahan← D. Sambissa

46'

D. Duhaney← Y. Bahadir

48'

Furkan Apaydın

65'

E. Bilsel← A. Habesoglu

66'

D. Aydin← O. F. Duymaz

66'

Phellipe← V. Temel

74'

A. Cham← M. Krstovski

80'

88'

90+5'

90+3'

90+1'

90+1'

90+3'

B. Yavuzay← P. Brazao

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

İstanbulsporBodrum

Overview

49%Possession51%

16Total Shots8

1.39Expected Goals (xG)0.81

10Corners2

10Fouls8

Shots

16Total Shots8

3On Target2

4Off Target5

9Blocked1

8Inside Box4

8Outside Box4

Passing

49%Possession51%

411Total Passes454

347Accurate Passes397

84%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

10Fouls8

3Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1

1Offsides3

1. Lig: İstanbulspor 0–1 Bodrum FK

Bodrum FK beat İstanbulspor 1-0 in 1. Lig on March 22, 2026.

Goals: T. Seferi (8').

Bodrum FK controlled possession (51%) and registered 8 shots to 16.

The match was played at Esenyurt Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu in Istanbul.

İstanbulspor vs Bodrum FK — 1. Lig 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

1. Lig: İstanbulspor 0–1 Bodrum FK