Bodrum FK 5–0 İstanbulspor: Result & Stats | 1. Lig

Bodrum FK

FT

5 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

İstanbulspor

E. Bilsel 90'

T. Seferi 68', 45'

Fredy 54' (pen)

P. Brazao 7'

11/7/2025

1. Lig · Round 13Grey Beton Bodrum Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Bodrum FK59%

×Draw21%

İstanbulspor20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bodrum FKExpected goals in this matchİstanbulspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.07

1.10

Bodrum FK

2.07

İstanbulspor

1.10

Bodrum FK creates 88% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

2.49

creates per match

1.08

1.13

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Bodrum FK

2.49

İstanbulspor

1.08

allows per match

Bodrum FK

1.13

İstanbulspor

1.65

+0.34scores more than expected

finishing

-0.75scores less than expected

finishing

Bodrum FK+0.34scores more

İstanbulspor-0.75scores less

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bodrum FK ↓

İstanbulspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Bodrum FK or draw

80%

Bodrum FK or İstanbulspor

79%

Draw or İstanbulspor

41%

Winning margin

Bodrum FK wins by 2+

36%

İstanbulspor wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Bodrum FK 1+ goals

87%

Bodrum FK 2+ goals

61%

Bodrum FK 3+ goals

34%

İstanbulspor 1+ goals

67%

İstanbulspor 2+ goals

30%

İstanbulspor 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Bodrum FK (draw refunded)

75%

İstanbulspor (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bodrum FK at home — creates 2.49, concedes 1.13 · 6 matches

İstanbulspor away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.65 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bodrum FK attack 2.49 + İstanbulspor defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 2.07

İstanbulspor attack 1.08 + Bodrum FK defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Bodrum FK scores more

59%

level

21%

İstanbulspor scores more

20%

Bodrum FK at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Bodrum FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

99

T. Seferi

Bodrum FK · M

9.5

Match Events

7'

P. Brazao↳ Fredy

27'

Fredy

45'

T. Seferi↳ M. Mohammed

46'

Y. Bahadir← O. Sahan

46'

D. Sambissa← D. Aksu

47'

Arlind Ajeti

52'

Pedro BrazãoPenalty confirmed

54'

FredyPenalty

57'

M. Mamadou← F. Loshaj

64'

M. Sol← E. Gultekin

67'

A. Aslan← A. Habesoglu

68'

T. Seferi

73'

Z. Dimitrov← M. Mohammed

73'

I. Dayakli← M. Krstovski

74'

E. Bilsel← Fredy

75'

Yusuf Ali Özer

84'

O. Imeri← P. Brazao

84'

I. Tarim← A. Ajeti

90'

E. Bilsel↳ Y. Sertkaya

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Bodrumİstanbulspor

Overview

49%Possession51%

15Total Shots8

3.95Expected Goals (xG)0.72

2Corners2

12Fouls13

Shots

15Total Shots8

8On Target5

5Off Target1

2Blocked2

11Inside Box3

4Outside Box5

Passing

49%Possession51%

349Total Passes369

280Accurate Passes300

80%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

5Saves3

Discipline

12Fouls13

2Yellow Cards1

2Offsides6