İstanbulspor 0–0 Adanaspor: Result & Stats | 1. Lig

İstanbulspor

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Adanaspor

11/9/2024

1. Lig · Round 12Esenyurt Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

İstanbulspor52%

×Draw24%

Adanaspor23%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

İstanbulsporExpected goals in this matchAdanaspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.03

İstanbulspor

1.67

Adanaspor

1.03

İstanbulspor creates 62% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 116 away

1.72

creates per match

0.89

1.17

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

İstanbulspor

1.72

Adanaspor

0.89

allows per match

İstanbulspor

1.17

Adanaspor

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

İstanbulspor+0.00on par

Adanaspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

İstanbulspor ↓

Adanaspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

28%72%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

İstanbulspor or draw

77%

İstanbulspor or Adanaspor

76%

Draw or Adanaspor

48%

Winning margin

İstanbulspor wins by 2+

28%

Adanaspor wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

İstanbulspor 1+ goals

81%

İstanbulspor 2+ goals

50%

İstanbulspor 3+ goals

23%

Adanaspor 1+ goals

64%

Adanaspor 2+ goals

28%

Adanaspor 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

İstanbulspor (draw refunded)

69%

Adanaspor (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

İstanbulspor at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.17 · 110 matches

Adanaspor away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.61 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

İstanbulspor attack 1.72 + Adanaspor defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.67

Adanaspor attack 0.89 + İstanbulspor defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

İstanbulspor scores more

52%

level

24%

Adanaspor scores more

23%

İstanbulspor at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "İstanbulspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

A. Ciss

Adanaspor · M

8.0

Match Events

29'

Samuel Yepie Yepie

44'

Harun Alpsoy

46'

A. Dabo← B. Innocent

51'

Mehmet Feyzi Yıldırım

61'

62'

62'

69'

74'

D. Emeksiz← M. Altunbaş

76'

M. Sarıkaya← K. Sönmez

79'

Adama Fofana

90+3'

D. Şenyurt← S. Yépié Yépié

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

İstanbulsporAdanaspor

Overview

62%Possession38%

8Total Shots10

6Corners7

9Fouls16

Shots

8Total Shots10

2On Target1

3Off Target5

3Blocked4

4Inside Box5

4Outside Box5

Passing

62%Possession38%

521Total Passes309

434Accurate Passes212

83%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

9Fouls16

1Yellow Cards4

3Offsides2