İstanbulspor 1–1 Adanaspor: Result & Stats | 1. Lig

İstanbulspor

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Adanaspor

İ. Yılmaz 24'

A. Ciss 48'

5/8/2022

1. Lig · Round 36Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

İstanbulspor52%

×Draw24%

Adanaspor23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

İstanbulsporExpected goals in this matchAdanaspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.03

İstanbulspor

1.67

Adanaspor

1.03

İstanbulspor creates 62% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 117 away

1.72

creates per match

0.89

1.17

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

İstanbulspor

1.72

Adanaspor

0.89

allows per match

İstanbulspor

1.17

Adanaspor

1.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

İstanbulspor+0.00on par

Adanaspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

İstanbulspor ↓

Adanaspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

28%72%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

İstanbulspor or draw

77%

İstanbulspor or Adanaspor

76%

Draw or Adanaspor

48%

Winning margin

İstanbulspor wins by 2+

28%

Adanaspor wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

İstanbulspor 1+ goals

81%

İstanbulspor 2+ goals

50%

İstanbulspor 3+ goals

23%

Adanaspor 1+ goals

64%

Adanaspor 2+ goals

28%

Adanaspor 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

İstanbulspor (draw refunded)

69%

Adanaspor (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

İstanbulspor at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.17 · 110 matches

Adanaspor away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.62 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

İstanbulspor attack 1.72 + Adanaspor defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.67

Adanaspor attack 0.89 + İstanbulspor defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

İstanbulspor scores more

52%

level

24%

Adanaspor scores more

23%

İstanbulspor at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "İstanbulspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

50

A. Ciss

Adanaspor · F

7.6

Match Events

24'

İ. Yılmaz↳ J. Topalli

25'

E. Karadağ← T. Bruns

41'

Michael Ologo

46'

A. Yaşar← M. Ologo

48'

A. Ciss↳ İ. Aksu

66'

B. Firat← İ. Aksu

73'

K. Abazaj← J. Topalli

73'

B. Görmez← D. Aksu

75'

Yohan Roche

79'

O. Erdoğan← E. Öztürk

86'

V. Ethemi← E. Rroca

86'

K. Keleş← H. Erdoğan

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

İstanbulsporAdanaspor

Overview

55%Possession45%

9Total Shots8

2Corners4

20Fouls10

Shots

9Total Shots8

4On Target6

4Off Target1

1Blocked1

8Inside Box5

1Outside Box3

Passing

55%Possession45%

524Total Passes411

422Accurate Passes324

81%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

5Saves3

Discipline

20Fouls10

1Yellow Cards1

5Offsides2