Issy W 0–5 FC Fleury 91 W: Result & Stats

Issy W

FT

0 – 5

HT: 0 – 0

FC Fleury 91 W

5/7/2022

Feminine Division 1 · Round 20Cité des Sports

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Issy W17%

×Draw18%

FC Fleury 91 W64%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Issy WExpected goals in this matchFC Fleury 91 W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

2.42

Issy W

1.18

FC Fleury 91 W

2.42

FC Fleury 91 W creates 105% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 84 away

0.78

creates per match

1.33

3.52

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Issy W

0.78

FC Fleury 91 W

1.33

allows per match

Issy W

3.52

FC Fleury 91 W

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Issy W+0.00on par

FC Fleury 91 W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Issy W ↓

FC Fleury 91 W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–17%

0–28%

0–37%

0–44%

1

1–03%

1–18%

1–210%

1–38%

1–45%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Issy W or draw

36%

Issy W or FC Fleury 91 W

82%

Draw or FC Fleury 91 W

83%

Winning margin

Issy W wins by 2+

7%

FC Fleury 91 W wins by 2+

42%

Team goals

Issy W 1+ goals

69%

Issy W 2+ goals

33%

Issy W 3+ goals

12%

FC Fleury 91 W 1+ goals

91%

FC Fleury 91 W 2+ goals

69%

FC Fleury 91 W 3+ goals

43%

Draw no bet

Issy W (draw refunded)

21%

FC Fleury 91 W (draw refunded)

79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Issy W at home — creates 0.78, concedes 3.52 · 23 matches

FC Fleury 91 W away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.57 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Issy W attack 0.78 + FC Fleury 91 W defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.18

FC Fleury 91 W attack 1.33 + Issy W defence 3.52 → ÷2 → 2.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Issy W scores more

17%

level

18%

FC Fleury 91 W scores more

64%

FC Fleury 91 W at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "FC Fleury 91 W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff