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FC Fleury 91 W vs Issy W — Feminine Division 1 2018

FC Fleury 91 W
FC Fleury 91 W
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Issy W
Issy W
5/21/2021Feminine Division 1Feminine Division 1 · Round 21Terrain Walter Felder

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

FC Fleury 91 W69%
×Draw18%
Issy W13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Fleury 91 W
2.28
Issy W
0.88

FC Fleury 91 W creates 159% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 24 away

creates per match

FC Fleury 91 W
1.56
Issy W
0.50

allows per match

FC Fleury 91 W
1.25
Issy W
3.00

finishing

FC Fleury 91 W+0.00on par
Issy W+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Fleury 91 W ↓

Issy W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

FC Fleury 91 W or draw
87%
FC Fleury 91 W or Issy W
82%
Draw or Issy W
31%

Winning margin

FC Fleury 91 W wins by 2+
45%
Issy W wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

FC Fleury 91 W 1+ goals
90%
FC Fleury 91 W 2+ goals
66%
FC Fleury 91 W 3+ goals
39%
Issy W 1+ goals
59%
Issy W 2+ goals
22%
Issy W 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

FC Fleury 91 W (draw refunded)
84%
Issy W (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Fleury 91 W at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.25 · 85 matches

Issy W away — creates 0.50, concedes 3.00 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Fleury 91 W attack 1.56 + Issy W defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.28

Issy W attack 0.50 + FC Fleury 91 W defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

FC Fleury 91 W scores more
69%
level
18%
Issy W scores more
13%

FC Fleury 91 W at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "FC Fleury 91 W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Fleury 91 W vs Issy W

FC Fleury 91 W beat Issy W 3-1 in Feminine Division 1 on May 21, 2021.

The match was played at Terrain Walter Felder in Fleury Merogis.