Issia Wazi 1–6 AFAD: Result & Stats | Ligue 1

Issia Wazi

FT

1 – 6

AFAD

2/9/2020

Ligue 1 · Round 16Stade Victor Biaka Boda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Issia Wazi19%

×Draw27%

AFAD54%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Issia WaziExpected goals in this matchAFAD

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.71

1.42

Issia Wazi

0.71

AFAD

1.42

AFAD creates 100% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 93 away

0.60

creates per match

1.14

1.70

allows per match

0.81

creates per match

Issia Wazi

0.60

AFAD

1.14

allows per match

Issia Wazi

1.70

AFAD

0.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Issia Wazi+0.00on par

AFAD+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Issia Wazi ↓

AFAD →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–117%

0–212%

0–36%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–03%

2–14%

2–23%

2–31%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Issia Wazi or draw

46%

Issia Wazi or AFAD

73%

Draw or AFAD

81%

Winning margin

Issia Wazi wins by 2+

5%

AFAD wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Issia Wazi 1+ goals

51%

Issia Wazi 2+ goals

16%

Issia Wazi 3+ goals

4%

AFAD 1+ goals

76%

AFAD 2+ goals

41%

AFAD 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Issia Wazi (draw refunded)

26%

AFAD (draw refunded)

74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Issia Wazi at home — creates 0.60, concedes 1.70 · 10 matches

AFAD away — creates 1.14, concedes 0.81 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Issia Wazi attack 0.60 + AFAD defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.71

AFAD attack 1.14 + Issia Wazi defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Issia Wazi scores more

19%

level

27%

AFAD scores more

54%

AFAD at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "AFAD will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff