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AFAD vs Issia Wazi — Ligue 1 2019

AFAD
AFAD
FT
3 – 1
Issia Wazi
Issia Wazi
9/1/2019Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 3Parc des Sports de Treichville

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

AFAD44%
×Draw29%
Issia Wazi28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AFAD
1.26
Issia Wazi
0.94

AFAD creates 34% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 10 away

creates per match

AFAD
1.12
Issia Wazi
1.00

allows per match

AFAD
0.88
Issia Wazi
1.40

finishing

AFAD+0.00on par
Issia Wazi+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFAD ↓

Issia Wazi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

AFAD or draw
72%
AFAD or Issia Wazi
71%
Draw or Issia Wazi
56%

Winning margin

AFAD wins by 2+
20%
Issia Wazi wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

AFAD 1+ goals
72%
AFAD 2+ goals
36%
AFAD 3+ goals
13%
Issia Wazi 1+ goals
61%
Issia Wazi 2+ goals
24%
Issia Wazi 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

AFAD (draw refunded)
61%
Issia Wazi (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AFAD at home — creates 1.12, concedes 0.88 · 91 matches

Issia Wazi away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.40 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AFAD attack 1.12 + Issia Wazi defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.26

Issia Wazi attack 1.00 + AFAD defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

AFAD scores more
44%
level
29%
Issia Wazi scores more
28%

AFAD at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "AFAD will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: AFAD 3–1 Issia Wazi

AFAD beat Issia Wazi 3-1 in Ligue 1 on September 1, 2019.

The match was played at Parc des Sports de Treichville in Abidjan.