Israel 1–0 Belgium: Result & Stats

Israel

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Belgium

Y. Shua 86'

11/17/2024

UEFA Nations League · League A - 6Bozsik Aréna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Israel40%

×Draw25%

Belgium35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IsraelExpected goals in this matchBelgium

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.36

Israel

1.46

Belgium

1.36

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 13 away

1.38

creates per match

1.23

1.50

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Israel

1.38

Belgium

1.23

allows per match

Israel

1.50

Belgium

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Israel+0.00on par

Belgium+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Israel ↓

Belgium →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Israel or draw

65%

Israel or Belgium

75%

Draw or Belgium

60%

Winning margin

Israel wins by 2+

19%

Belgium wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Israel 1+ goals

77%

Israel 2+ goals

43%

Israel 3+ goals

18%

Belgium 1+ goals

74%

Belgium 2+ goals

39%

Belgium 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Israel (draw refunded)

53%

Belgium (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Israel at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

Belgium away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Israel attack 1.38 + Belgium defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.46

Belgium attack 1.23 + Israel defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Israel scores more

40%

level

25%

Belgium scores more

35%

Israel at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Israel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

W. Faes

Belgium · D

7.7

Match Events

31'

Timothy Castagne

37'

J. Bakayoko← L. Trossard

46'

M. Smets← Z. Debast

61'

O. Gandelman← M. Abu Fani

61'

D. Sabi'a← D. David

67'

A. Sambi Lokonga← A. Vermeeren

73'

Loïs Openda

74'

D. Haziza← D. Peretz

74'

Y. Shua← E. Dasa

76'

Raz Shlomo

84'

Johan Bakayoko

86'

Y. Shua↳ D. Sabi'a

88'

E. Azoulay← O. Gloukh

90+3'

Mahmoud Jaber

90+3'

K. Sardella← A. Al Dakhil

90+3'

N. Bassette← A. Engels

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IsraelBelgium

Overview

31%Possession69%

10Total Shots12

5Corners5

14Fouls10

Shots

10Total Shots12

4On Target4

4Off Target6

2Blocked2

5Inside Box7

5Outside Box5

Passing

31%Possession69%

281Total Passes649

209Accurate Passes581

74%Pass Accuracy90%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

14Fouls10

2Yellow Cards3

3Offsides3