Belgium 3–1 Israel: Result & Stats

Belgium

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Israel

K. De Bruyne 52' (pen), 21'

Y. Tielemans 48'

T. Castagne 36' (OG)

9/6/2024

UEFA Nations League · League A - 1Nagyerdei Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Belgium57%

×Draw20%

Israel22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BelgiumExpected goals in this matchIsrael

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.21

1.32

Belgium

2.21

Israel

1.32

Belgium creates 67% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 9 away

2.54

creates per match

1.33

1.31

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

Belgium

2.54

Israel

1.33

allows per match

Belgium

1.31

Israel

1.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Belgium+0.00on par

Israel+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belgium ↓

Israel →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

47%53%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Belgium or draw

78%

Belgium or Israel

80%

Draw or Israel

43%

Winning margin

Belgium wins by 2+

35%

Israel wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Belgium 1+ goals

89%

Belgium 2+ goals

65%

Belgium 3+ goals

38%

Israel 1+ goals

73%

Israel 2+ goals

38%

Israel 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Belgium (draw refunded)

72%

Israel (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Belgium at home — creates 2.54, concedes 1.31 · 13 matches

Israel away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.89 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Belgium attack 2.54 + Israel defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 2.21

Israel attack 1.33 + Belgium defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Belgium scores more

57%

level

20%

Israel scores more

22%

Belgium at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Belgium will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

K. De Bruyne

Belgium · M

9.3

Match Events

21'

K. De Bruyne↳ J. Doku

33'

Mohammad Abu Fani

36'

T. CastagneOwn goal

48'

Y. Tielemans↳ L. Openda

52'

K. De BruynePenalty

63'

Dor Peretz← O. Gloukh

63'

R. Revivo← O. Gandelman

64'

Z. Debast← M. De Cuyper

64'

C. De Ketelaere← L. Openda

64'

D. David← D. Gropper

68'

M. Jaber← M. Abu Fani

74'

A. Engels← Y. Tielemans

74'

J. Duranville← J. Doku

77'

Kevin De Bruyne

80'

D. Biton← M. Solomon

82'

J. Bakayoko← D. Lukébakio

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BelgiumIsrael

Overview

64%Possession36%

25Total Shots10

7Corners1

9Fouls7

Shots

25Total Shots10

8On Target2

10Off Target4

7Blocked4

16Inside Box7

9Outside Box3

Passing

64%Possession36%

578Total Passes324

518Accurate Passes260

90%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

9Fouls7

1Yellow Cards1

5Offsides3